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Rafael continues to decouple over the Gulf. Meanwhile we are keeping a watch on Invest 98L around the Bahamas and potentially a new low forming in the Caribbean.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 31 (Milton) , Major: 31 (Milton) Florida - Any: 31 (Milton) Major: 31 (Milton)
TS Rafael
ADV#29 9:00 am EDT
26.3N 91.9W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1003mb
Moving:
Nnw at 3 mph
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04GTP
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Posts: 2
Loc: Saint Petersburg Beach, FL
GFS Projections for Tampa Bay Area
      Tue Oct 04 2005 06:09 PM

Has anyone taken a look at the 12z 10/4/05 GFS model run?

For the past two days, GFS has been predicting what looks to be a Cat-1 or Cat-2 storm winding itself up from the NE Yucatan Peninsula and working it's way to (roughly) the mouth of Tampa Bay in 66 hours or so.

It doesn't have anything to do with 92L as far as I can tell, but it looks ominous, if the model verifies over the next couple of days.

Anyone have any thoughts as to why GFS shows this genesis? Check out the 850MB vorticity loop at:
GFS MODEL LOOP

--------------------
Novice storm tracker / "Hurricane Junky". Have lived through: Jeanne, Charley, Elena, Ivan, too many T.S.'s to mention!


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Subject Posted by Posted on
* GFS Projections for Tampa Bay Area 04GTP Tue Oct 04 2005 06:09 PM
. * * Re: GFS Projections for Tampa Bay Area CoalCracker   Tue Oct 04 2005 07:37 PM
. * * Re: GFS Projections for Tampa Bay Area Ben Wallace   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:55 PM

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