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NHC advisories to begin shortly on Storm 01L (Potential Tropical Cyclone 01L) in the Western Gulf. Elsewhere, low east of Bahamas being tracked.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 293 (Idalia) , Major: 293 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 293 (Idalia) Major: 293 (Idalia)
Ptnl One
ADV#3A 8:00 am EDT
21.5N 92.8W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
N at 6 mph
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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks
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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida
Re: Looks Like We Might Have Tammy
      Wed Oct 05 2005 10:32 AM

Quote:


With the winds already reported with this system, will they upgrade to Tammy...or list this as TD #21??
--Lou



Based upon the NHC TWO... It will be directly designated as T.S. Tammy shortly. I say this because the TWO said a Tropical Cyclone had formed - it did not say a Tropical Depression. They may not yet know how strong the maximum winds are, and may wait until recon is in before naming it, however.

Chad Myers is saying it will run up the east coast - which is contrary to ALL of the computer models the last time I checked (which all forecast it to enter the GOM and basically hit me, or come close to me and then head back NE across the state again). Looking at the current models for 92L on WU, they show it moving parrallel to the coast but on shore.. except for NOGAPS which has it moving into the central GOM. NONE of them have it hitting Georgia (which is what Chad said it would do). What the heck was he basing his forecast on???

By the way... the movement on radar appears to be very slow, but WNW to my eyes (or due west as Daniel pointed out after my initial post). It may make landfall near Melborne before the NHC gets around to sending a plane into it... circulation looks VERY close to land. Any word on where the warnings will be put up for, or what the forecast track officially will be?

Added: From the MLB NWS office:
NOW...
...TROPICAL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING EAST OF MELBOURNE...
AT 545 AM...MELBOURNE RADAR DETECTED THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
CIRCULATION CENTER 30 MILES EAST OF MELBOURNE. THE CIRCULATION WAS
MOVING SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWEST PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE.

Well so much for what my eyes were tellijng me about a due west/wnw motion, I guess. And where is the advisory on this thing? NHC TWO said 30 minutes ago that there would be a special advisory issued shortly. Weather Channel just said that the hurricane hunters found a circulation - but TWO said they were just standing by, not that they had even gone into the system! Is everyone on a different page with this thing???



--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


Edited by Hugh (Wed Oct 05 2005 10:52 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Bahamas Tropical Wave and Tropical Depression Stan MikeCAdministrator Wed Oct 05 2005 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Clark   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:37 AM
. * * 92L maintains and Stan moves toward the E. Pacific danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:00 AM
. * * Looks Like We Might Have Tammy recmod   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Looks Like We Might Have Tammy Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Looks Like We Might Have Tammy Wxwatcher2   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:52 AM
. * * Severe Weather Possible danielwAdministrator   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible amonty   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible amonty   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:02 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible amonty   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:04 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:21 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible jlauderdal   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Wxwatcher2   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:18 PM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Random Chaos   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:37 PM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Margie   Wed Oct 05 2005 01:03 PM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Ed in Va   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:02 PM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible craigm   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:15 PM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible OrlandoDan   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Beach   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:33 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Lsr1166   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible emackl   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible craigm   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:42 AM
. * * Re: Severe Weather Possible Hootowl   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 04 2005 08:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Ed in Va   Tue Oct 04 2005 08:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave hurricane expert   Tue Oct 04 2005 06:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Wxwatcher2   Tue Oct 04 2005 01:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Margie   Tue Oct 04 2005 02:08 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave HanKFranK   Tue Oct 04 2005 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave dave foster   Tue Oct 04 2005 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave dave foster   Wed Oct 05 2005 01:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Margie   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:50 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:30 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:37 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:48 AM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Tropics Guy   Tue Oct 04 2005 04:54 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Steve H1   Tue Oct 04 2005 05:02 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up HanKFranK   Tue Oct 04 2005 05:20 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up scottsvb   Tue Oct 04 2005 05:30 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up ralphfl   Tue Oct 04 2005 06:25 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up scottsvb   Tue Oct 04 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Random Chaos   Tue Oct 04 2005 07:11 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up scottsvb   Tue Oct 04 2005 07:19 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up emackl   Tue Oct 04 2005 07:22 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Big Kahuna   Tue Oct 04 2005 08:09 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 04 2005 08:25 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up emackl   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:03 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:11 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Hootowl   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Margie   Tue Oct 04 2005 10:18 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Hootowl   Tue Oct 04 2005 11:21 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 04 2005 11:32 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Margie   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:22 AM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Brown Brown   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:08 AM
. * * WS ETA CoalCracker   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:10 AM
. * * 8pm obs HanKFranK   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:24 AM
. * * Re: 8pm obs emackl   Wed Oct 05 2005 01:10 AM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Tue Oct 04 2005 10:34 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:34 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up sara33   Tue Oct 04 2005 11:03 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Tue Oct 04 2005 11:28 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up sara33   Tue Oct 04 2005 11:42 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up jusforsean   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:18 AM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up emackl   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:57 PM
. * * latest TWO Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:20 PM
. * * Re: latest TWO Margie   Tue Oct 04 2005 09:37 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up HURRICANELONNY   Tue Oct 04 2005 08:16 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 04 2005 08:04 PM
. * * The odd chance event Bloodstar   Tue Oct 04 2005 07:07 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Clark   Tue Oct 04 2005 05:47 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 04 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up sara33   Tue Oct 04 2005 05:28 PM
. * * Re: 92L Spinning up scottsvb   Tue Oct 04 2005 05:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Tazmanian93   Tue Oct 04 2005 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Margie   Tue Oct 04 2005 03:38 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Ed in Va   Tue Oct 04 2005 02:17 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave emackl   Tue Oct 04 2005 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Margie   Tue Oct 04 2005 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Katie   Tue Oct 04 2005 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave emackl   Tue Oct 04 2005 01:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Scrappy   Tue Oct 04 2005 01:06 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Lee-Delray   Tue Oct 04 2005 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave tpratch   Tue Oct 04 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave Katie   Tue Oct 04 2005 02:59 PM
. * * Katrina zmdz01   Tue Oct 04 2005 03:35 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Stan Approaches Mexico, And More on Bahamas Wave emackl   Tue Oct 04 2005 01:23 PM

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