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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 270 (Idalia) , Major: 270 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 270 (Idalia) Major: 270 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
quick
      Wed Oct 05 2005 10:43 PM

looks like tammy will landfall as a 45kt tropical storm at cumberland island, ga around 8pm local. the nhc forecast track taking it nw keeps looking goofy and hopefully they'll adjust it right with the next cycle. center of the storm may pass close to here late morning tomorrow, i'm thinking. we stand to get a couple inches of rain overnight and tomorrow morning. haven't seen any real wind reports, but st simons and savannah should get a good squall or two in the next few hrs.. maybe some ts force gusts. kinda doubt any ts force winds will encroach on land, but they're definitely occurring off the ga coast right now.
as for 93L... the upper trough digging on its western side has really swept into what looked like a formative low earlier. there's still a sharp bend in the surface wind flow northeast of cancun... which should migrate ne towards sw florida and potentially form something over the next day or two. then again the energy from this system may refocus further southeast in the nw caribbean. synoptic pattern looks right for another formation, but i'm not buying into that nne track anymore.. best bet is either s. florida... and if something crosses there it will probably turn north and head for the eastern carolinas. i very much doubt that more than a tropical storm would cross florida by the weekend. it is worth noting that most of the globals show something trapped east of the se us after the weekend. this will either be a system or a bunch of energy that gets caught under the next ridge and may try to develop as well. the processes forcing this pattern are set to repeat, so we're by no means done after this week.
actually a pretty good shot that the 94L system will act up if it can gain a little latitude. long term track would tend to be nw, slowly. it's way out there and an atypical thing for a system that far east in october to bother the continent. the upper low north of there is a longshot at a cold-to-warm core conversion system, but only showing the slightest of tendencies in that direction.
HF 2242z05october

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* Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast MikeCAdministrator Wed Oct 05 2005 10:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast lawgator   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Beaumont, TX   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:24 PM
. * * Can't make sense of the data Rasvar   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Yikes   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast crpeavley   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast damejune2   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast CoalCracker   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast damejune2   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast bobbutts   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Random Chaos   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Colleen A.   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Jane219ga   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:55 PM
. * * quick HanKFranK   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:43 PM
. * * various thoughts Clark   Thu Oct 06 2005 12:13 AM
. * * Re: various thoughts Hugh   Thu Oct 06 2005 12:57 AM
. * * Re: various thoughts dave foster   Thu Oct 06 2005 01:29 AM
. * * Re: various thoughts Hugh   Thu Oct 06 2005 01:36 AM
. * * Re: various thoughts dave foster   Thu Oct 06 2005 02:54 AM
. * * Re: various thoughts Convergence   Thu Oct 06 2005 03:07 AM
. * * Re: various thoughts Colleen A.   Thu Oct 06 2005 01:08 AM
. * * Re: various thoughts GuppieGrouper   Thu Oct 06 2005 01:12 AM
. * * Re: quick Yikes   Thu Oct 06 2005 12:10 AM
. * * Re: quick Hugh   Thu Oct 06 2005 12:01 AM
. * * Re: quick Storm Hunter   Thu Oct 06 2005 12:16 AM
. * * Re: quick HanKFranK   Thu Oct 06 2005 01:10 AM
. * * Re: quick suziqt   Thu Oct 06 2005 01:50 AM
. * * Re: quick Hugh   Thu Oct 06 2005 01:24 AM
. * * Re: quick Clark   Thu Oct 06 2005 01:56 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Big Kahuna   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast charlottefl   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast HCW   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Wxwatcher2   Wed Oct 05 2005 10:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast laureg   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast GuppieGrouper   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Random Chaos   Wed Oct 05 2005 09:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast crpeavley   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast orlandocanewatcher   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Genesis   Wed Oct 05 2005 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast dave foster   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast HURRICANELONNY   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast bobbutts   Wed Oct 05 2005 01:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast bobbutts   Wed Oct 05 2005 01:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Tropics Guy   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast oklahoma   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast ZooKeeper   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast HanKFranK   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:08 PM
. * * TD 19 Making a comeback? and the Stan Rainband Bloodstar   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: TD 19 Making a comeback? and the Stan Rainband Clark   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Wxwatcher2   Wed Oct 05 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast GuppieGrouper   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast LisaA   Wed Oct 05 2005 02:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast craigm   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Brown Brown   Thu Oct 06 2005 01:42 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Clark   Thu Oct 06 2005 02:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Hugh   Thu Oct 06 2005 01:46 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast dave foster   Thu Oct 06 2005 01:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Hugh   Thu Oct 06 2005 02:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast dave foster   Thu Oct 06 2005 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Brown Brown   Thu Oct 06 2005 02:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast tpratch   Thu Oct 06 2005 02:35 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Thu Oct 06 2005 02:13 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Brown Brown   Thu Oct 06 2005 02:23 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Convergence   Thu Oct 06 2005 02:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* Brown Brown   Thu Oct 06 2005 02:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Storm Hunter   Thu Oct 06 2005 02:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Brown Brown   Thu Oct 06 2005 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* jbmusic   Thu Oct 06 2005 03:14 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast tpratch   Thu Oct 06 2005 03:19 AM
. * * fun with follow-ons HanKFranK   Thu Oct 06 2005 06:20 AM
. * * Re: fun with follow-ons Susan in Jupiter, FL   Thu Oct 06 2005 08:56 AM
. * * Re: fun with follow-ons Random Chaos   Thu Oct 06 2005 10:31 AM
. * * Re: fun with follow-ons Hugh   Thu Oct 06 2005 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Tracey   Thu Oct 06 2005 03:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Brown Brown   Thu Oct 06 2005 03:09 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Convergence   Thu Oct 06 2005 03:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Brown Brown   Thu Oct 06 2005 03:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Brown Brown   Thu Oct 06 2005 02:27 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast La Nimo   Thu Oct 06 2005 02:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Sarasota3G   Thu Oct 06 2005 02:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast ralphfl   Thu Oct 06 2005 01:45 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Big Kahuna   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Fletch   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:13 PM
. * * 93L Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:38 PM
. * * Re: 93L Beaumont, TX   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:46 PM
. * * Re: 93L emackl   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:55 PM
. * * Re: 93L Beaumont, TX   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:15 PM
. * * Re: 93L Brad in Miami   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:40 PM
. * * Re: 93L CoalCracker   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:14 PM
. * * Re: 93L Genesis   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:27 PM
. * * Re: 93L Goosus   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:48 PM
. * * Re: 93L sara33   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: 93L MissBecky   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: 93L dave foster   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:04 PM
. * * Re: 93L Genesis   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:09 PM
. * * Re: 93L Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:28 PM
. * * Re: 93L scottsvb   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:41 PM
. * * Re: 93L Ed in Va   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:45 PM
. * * Re: 93L scottsvb   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:00 PM
. * * Re: 93L ralphfl   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:04 PM
. * * Re: 93L HanKFranK   Wed Oct 05 2005 07:24 PM
. * * Re: 93L Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:46 PM
. * * Re: 93L sara33   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:45 PM
. * * Re: 93L Big Kahuna   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:54 PM
. * * Re: 93L Bloodstar   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:58 PM
. * * Re: 93L sara33   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:50 PM
. * * Re: 93L Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:47 PM
. * * Re: 93L Steve H1   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:22 PM
. * * Re: 93L Storm Hunter   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: 93L rmbjoe1954   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:27 PM
. * * Re: 93L emackl   Wed Oct 05 2005 04:58 PM
. * * Re: 93L Margie   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:37 PM
. * * Re: 93L emackl   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:42 PM
. * * Re: 93L Big Kahuna   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:05 PM
. * * Re: 90L Bloodstar   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:11 PM
. * * Re: 90L MapMaster   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:27 PM
. * * Re: 90L HURRICANELONNY   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:37 PM
. * * Re: 93L Margie   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:05 PM
. * * Re: 94L HCW   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:56 PM
. * * Re: 94L Big Kahuna   Wed Oct 05 2005 06:11 PM
. * * Re: 93L scottsvb   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:42 PM
. * * Re: 93L Rabbit   Wed Oct 05 2005 05:25 PM
. * * Re: 93L Beaumont, TX   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:51 PM
. * * Re: 93L Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:59 PM
. * * Re: 93L Genesis   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Margie   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Thunderbird12   Wed Oct 05 2005 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast Hugh   Wed Oct 05 2005 12:09 PM

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