HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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rundown
Thu Oct 06 2005 05:33 PM
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tammy: low level center over southeast alabama now, moving wsw. most of the mid-level component of the system moved north as it decoupled near the ga/fl border last night. been light/moderate rain here all morning, but not a big deal really. the low level vorticity may get dragged down to the panhandle coast, but like the nhc discussion says it's very unlikely to redevelop.
93L: center over western cuba, moving slowly ene/ne. lopsided though it may be, a good low level westerly flow and sharp turn to a southerly flow is keeping this system viable at the surface, with a shear gradient over the top allowing for the lopsided convection to remain constant. wouldn't be surprised if it turns north over time and pivots up the east coast. the 'center' of the general broad low pressure is a 500mb low over the eastern gulf that all the rest of the features are turning around. some of the models are making this the primary feature, but i'm more of the opinion that 93L will be it, ready to baroclinically deepen as it moves up the east coast.
94L: looked better earlier this morning. there's a definite low and mid-level turning with this feature, but the deep convection that was near the center has puffed out and is now scattered on the arced bands to the north. the system is already sliding underneath the upper trough to the nw, so it should decelerate and come under greater shear. westward-building ridging and diffluence should keep it going, but as it sped along the last day or so it's eaten up a lot of its own comfort zone. based on overall organization i'd expect it to develop, but probably not very much. the disturbance should be persistent and end up moving nw over time. some of the wave energy may propagate west into the caribbean as well.
old td 19/upper low conglomerate: bastardi thinks this will drill down and end up as a system sw of bermuda early next week. based on how it looks and what the models show, i'd say there's a good chance this will happen. keep an eye on it as it works westward over the next few days.
azores storm: take a glance at the deep layer low near the azores. it's spun up a great deal and may have a secluded warm core, even though it's over subpar waters for supporting a typical hurricane. i'd be very interested to see the phase analysis diagrams on it as it has a definite tropical appearance, complete with banding, concentrated deep convection, and a banding-type eye feature. just a maritime/azores threat, and i doubt the nhc will pay any attention to it.
stan: a well defined low level circulation is visible off the coast of mexico now. nhc will probably initiate it as a different system, even though it is arguably still stan. the pacific name, should it acquire one, would be pilar. not sure what this system will do in the long run... some modeling shows it coming back to the mexican coast further north.
HF 1733z06october
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