HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
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qualms
Thu Oct 06 2005 06:37 PM
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well, here's how i'm interpreting what the nhc is saying about current systems:
for tammy they just mentioned that the hpc has issued its last advisory. the low isn't well defined anymore and would have to throw a bunch of deep convection to be reclassified, as it's pivoting off the panhandle coast this evening. very little chance is what i reckon, and the TWO assumes none.
93L they're more ambiguous on. their tone indicates that if it weren't sheared or being chased by a dry air surge and had organized convection, it would be a depression. it's lopsided like tammy was but with a more baroclinic sort of energy source. all the same it may develop into a tropical cyclone with one deep burst of convection and take off as the upper flow would start to steer it. expect it to track over southern florida and up the east coast.. whether as a tropical cyclone or as a half-formed low. if it becomes a tropical cyclone it would have a long deepening run up the coast, is the only caveat.
94L is getting into a strongly divergent/stronger shear zone. expect the persistent convection it's lacked to come into place now, but it may lose it all to shear just like that. were it to slow down it would have a chance at organization, but it would have to make very fine maneuvers between the killing shear and the swath that would support a sheared system.
TWO finally mentioned the deep-layer cyclone near 24/55. the surface part seems to be on the nw side of the overall low, and is in a moderately supportive environment. ahead is a very strong nw jet that is going to tear all the convection away if it runs into it. part of it will probably race ahead under the strong shear, and some should linger near the upper low . i'm not sure how this one plays out, as the upper trough has an opposite influence near the center.
basin shear has picked up a tad, so any system that manages to form will likely contend with some. the pattern is transitioning, though, so it ought to keep supporting new areas of disturbed weather for the time being.
HF 2237z06october
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