Tammy Makes Landfall, Other Systems

it isn't on the navy site, but ssd rated that 'non-tropical low' near 23/58 as a t-1.0 earlier. been noticing that it has a small anticyclone aloft within the larger cyclonic flow. leads me to believe that it isn't a true cold core system, and based on the incrementally greater amounts of deep convection it has been building over the last 2-3 days, i'd say it's got a decent shot. that would be 95L i guess... whenever nrl takes notice of it. it's in a precarious environment and would become a sheared system were it to develop. general movement for the next few days should be wnw as ridging should persist to the north out past 70w.
94L out to its southeast is running into the blitz of upper southwesterlies that are part of the deep trough near 60w. it has looked very near development for days now, but hasn't ever focused a low level center or any sort. best bet is from here that it turns into a big sheared cluster of thunderstorms against the trough. probably going to finally gain some latitude as well.
93L isn't anything to write home about, but is still a distinct area of low pressure around the florida keys. it should move over southeast florida today and be moving nne along/off the east coast by this evening. it hasn't shown much proclivity to do anything and is now getting caught in the southerly flow east of the deep layer low off the panhandle (the one that slurped up tammy yesterday). still has a long way to go to become a tropical cyclone, and that's just not so likely anymore. that panhandle low has the front encroaching on it and should become involved shortly.
former stan is still well defined off the mexican west coast. if that were in the caribbean it would be a depression.. there is obvious low level circulation and deep convection. due to shear it's getting ignored, but it meets most of the criteria for a tropical system.
in the coming days a lot of modeling persists low pressure near and east of florida, and around the nw caribbean. there isn't a clear signal for a particular feature, but with the pattern like it is, no reason to expect the basin to stop acting up.
HF 1400z07october

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Oct 07 2005 02:00 PM)

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