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typhoon_tip
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
      Fri Oct 07 2005 10:13 AM

GGEM (essentially the CMC) has a very interesting take on the Western Atlantic Basin near the end of next week...

http://ggweather.com/loops/canada_all.htm

It appears as though it is taking the U/A low currently near 23/59 and boring it to the surface over the next few days, while slowly moving it generally W.

The picture if complicated in the Atlantic Ocean for this weekend, early next week and beyond. There is a tendency unanimously across all guidance to build the W Atlantic heights actually further W.

In fact, it makes it unclear why most NWS offices are choosing to go with the more progressive models solutions regarding the frontal positioning by this Monday. It seems certainly plausible to this meteorologist that this boundary may in fact wash out altogether, and/or just be ineffectual at changing the synopsis beneath the middle troposphere. I suspect in the very least we will be left with a persistent S inflow of subtropical if not down right tropical air mass that will be oriented essentially S to N as we head into next week. (It may just be that the models are also overdoing the strenghth of antecedent anticyclone slated to migrate over the NW Atlantic at that time. I say so because it appears a bit questionable how intense the attending mid-level confluence will be with this feature.. A weaker feature would mean less suppression. Meanwhile, the GGEM solutions...

Also, the NOGAPs currently depicts a significant weakness in the vicinity of the SE Bahamas (thereabouts) for its days 5 and beyond, and this could be an attempt to latch onto similar thinking; especially considering that the overall synoptic tone of the NOGAPs is not too different from the GGEM.

Anyway, this will all be very interesting to watch because the U/A low in question is currently intensifying its convection closer to the center as we go on in time.. And, there are certain aspects about the GGEM solution that are quite believable because it elucidates both elements of peristence but also compliments the teleconnectors for this part of the hemisphere... I would say, of the extended range depictions we have seen thus far this late summer and autumn, this is the most confident - *however, confidence in any tropical phenomenon is by current science fleeting at best.

Edited by typhoon_tip (Fri Oct 07 2005 10:18 AM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves - Subtorpical Depression Short Lived MikeCAdministrator Fri Oct 07 2005 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 07 2005 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves NewWatcher   Fri Oct 07 2005 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 07 2005 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves Hootowl   Fri Oct 07 2005 11:09 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves Reaper   Fri Oct 07 2005 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 07 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves B.C.Francis   Fri Oct 07 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves Big Kahuna   Fri Oct 07 2005 04:36 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves HanKFranK   Sat Oct 08 2005 12:33 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves HanKFranK   Sat Oct 08 2005 05:08 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves Bloodstar   Sat Oct 08 2005 05:23 AM
. * * Azores system Rich B   Sat Oct 08 2005 06:47 AM
. * * Re: Azores system Hugh   Sat Oct 08 2005 08:45 AM
. * * Re: Azores system Random Chaos   Sat Oct 08 2005 09:17 AM
. * * Its here - 22L Rich B   Sat Oct 08 2005 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Its here - 22L Margie   Sat Oct 08 2005 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Its here - 22L dave foster   Sat Oct 08 2005 11:56 AM
. * * Azores - Canary Islands system Rich B   Sat Oct 08 2005 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system HanKFranK   Sat Oct 08 2005 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system dave foster   Sat Oct 08 2005 06:11 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system HanKFranK   Sat Oct 08 2005 09:21 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system Clark   Sat Oct 08 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system sara33   Sat Oct 08 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system NONAME   Sat Oct 08 2005 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system sara33   Sat Oct 08 2005 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system NONAME   Sat Oct 08 2005 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sat Oct 08 2005 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system NONAME   Sat Oct 08 2005 10:28 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system Clark   Sun Oct 09 2005 12:17 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system Rich B   Sun Oct 09 2005 04:05 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system HCW   Sun Oct 09 2005 09:19 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system damejune2   Sun Oct 09 2005 09:28 AM
. * * Vince Cycloneye11   Sun Oct 09 2005 09:37 AM
. * * Re: Vince Rich B   Sun Oct 09 2005 09:45 AM
. * * Re: Vince Lysis   Sun Oct 09 2005 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Vince Lsr1166   Sun Oct 09 2005 10:57 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system Hugh   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:51 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system sara33   Sat Oct 08 2005 09:52 PM
. * * Re: Its here - 22L Hugh   Sat Oct 08 2005 10:35 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 07 2005 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 07 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves CoalCracker   Fri Oct 07 2005 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves wasup   Fri Oct 07 2005 10:05 AM

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