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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 286 (Idalia) , Major: 286 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 286 (Idalia) Major: 286 (Idalia)
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typhoon_tip
Meteorologist


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Posts: 576
Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
      Fri Oct 07 2005 03:16 PM

Quote:

Man, and here I thought HankFrank was sometimes too technical for my uneducated mind.... I dont get one single thing you just tried to tell us that being said, I did look at the models you mentioned and see some things you are probably talking about so I guess in the end it is all copasetic.



Ah , sorry , my bad...
Basically I'm just saying (perhaps too implicitly) that the feature of interest (to me) should really be the hurricane being modeled by the CMC, which is also being somewhat supported by the NOGAPs - MET 101, it is always better to have more than one model forecasting a feature of interest.

What I also didn't mention is that the operational ECM and GFS models do not readily depict a feature such as the former two. However, and what I meant by "teleconnector" before, is that there is higher surface pressure in the means over the NW Atlantic and tending to migrate E.. This tends to lower surface pressure more than normal (potentially so) in the SW Atlantic Basin as a balancing mechanic against the higher surface pressure to the N. What this means is that you have an augmented (or enhanced) potential for cyclonic genesis between Cape Hatteras, Cuba and Bermuda. That area should be monitored for old frontal draps, U/A lows (such as that which we have approaching the area) and also TW's.

Having said all that... Hmmm...I wasn't paying attention but there is a gyre rotating around about 100miles ESE of the mouth of the Mississippi. I am uncertain whether this feature is a portion Tammy's remnants that might have sheared SW while she was in decay mode, but my memory is telling me that it is actually a separate entity. Either way, it has intense showers near it axis of rotation and though the U/A (as HPC has mentioned) is unfavorable over Florida and Cuba, I think it is actually "somewhat" better near this feature's precise lat/lon. Anyway...active tropics!

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves - Subtorpical Depression Short Lived MikeCAdministrator Fri Oct 07 2005 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 07 2005 02:13 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves NewWatcher   Fri Oct 07 2005 03:01 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 07 2005 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves Hootowl   Fri Oct 07 2005 03:09 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves Reaper   Fri Oct 07 2005 04:07 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 07 2005 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves B.C.Francis   Fri Oct 07 2005 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves Big Kahuna   Fri Oct 07 2005 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves HanKFranK   Sat Oct 08 2005 04:33 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves HanKFranK   Sat Oct 08 2005 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves Bloodstar   Sat Oct 08 2005 09:23 AM
. * * Azores system Rich B   Sat Oct 08 2005 10:47 AM
. * * Re: Azores system Hugh   Sat Oct 08 2005 12:45 PM
. * * Re: Azores system Random Chaos   Sat Oct 08 2005 01:17 PM
. * * Its here - 22L Rich B   Sat Oct 08 2005 01:43 PM
. * * Re: Its here - 22L Margie   Sat Oct 08 2005 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Its here - 22L dave foster   Sat Oct 08 2005 03:56 PM
. * * Azores - Canary Islands system Rich B   Sat Oct 08 2005 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system HanKFranK   Sat Oct 08 2005 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system dave foster   Sat Oct 08 2005 10:11 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system HanKFranK   Sun Oct 09 2005 01:21 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system Clark   Sun Oct 09 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system sara33   Sun Oct 09 2005 02:41 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system NONAME   Sun Oct 09 2005 02:46 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system sara33   Sun Oct 09 2005 02:50 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system NONAME   Sun Oct 09 2005 03:06 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system CaneTrackerInSoFl   Sun Oct 09 2005 02:46 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system NONAME   Sun Oct 09 2005 02:28 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system Clark   Sun Oct 09 2005 04:17 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system Rich B   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system HCW   Sun Oct 09 2005 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system damejune2   Sun Oct 09 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Vince Cycloneye11   Sun Oct 09 2005 01:37 PM
. * * Re: Vince Rich B   Sun Oct 09 2005 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Vince Lysis   Sun Oct 09 2005 02:40 PM
. * * Re: Vince Lsr1166   Sun Oct 09 2005 02:57 PM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system Hugh   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:51 AM
. * * Re: Azores - Canary Islands system sara33   Sun Oct 09 2005 01:52 AM
. * * Re: Its here - 22L Hugh   Sat Oct 08 2005 02:35 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves typhoon_tip   Fri Oct 07 2005 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves Thunderbird12   Fri Oct 07 2005 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves CoalCracker   Fri Oct 07 2005 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves wasup   Fri Oct 07 2005 02:05 PM

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