HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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Re: Nothing Imminent but Plenty of Waves
Sat Oct 08 2005 05:08 AM
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holy crap. go to the ghcc zoom satellite link at the bottom of the nhc satellite page, and take a look at a shot from the meteosat (east atlantic, africa, europe) zoomed in on the canaries. that azores system has dropped southeast and looks to have completely occluded. ssd rated it a st 3.0 (calling it 96L, something nrl hasn't picked up on), which would be a very powerful subtropical storm. nhc always ignores things out there, and it is over water near 70F, but i'd bet there's a good warm seclusion within that cool environment, similar to what happened with peter in december 2003. that's the sort of hybrid system that would have everybody singing and dancing if it were, say, racing up the eastern seaboard. kudos to the nhc if they mention it in the 5:30 TWO. correction, that's near madeira island off nw africa.
worth note that 95L has improved overnight and is now rated st 2.5, which is probably excessive. a persistence of its current structure or improvement would probably result in a classified system, so it isn't far off. most modeling isn't doing much with this system, but its energy is tracked wnw through the next few days towards the mid atlantic coast. it'll be noteworthy in case this thing develops.
to the southeast 94L has again uncoiled its overnight burst of deep convection. there is still plenty around it and in the upper-air diffluence on its northern side. as the upper trough ahead of it is sharpening and retrograding there is no certainty that it will kill the invest. it may remain coherent as it moves generally nw .over the next few days. there's actually still some modest ridging over the top of it, but it isn't sustaining convection.
closer to home 93L is jetting nne east of florida right now. too much shear and a very elongated nature makes this more of a trough max than anything else, but it will generate a good bit of squally weather for eastern nc and eventually new england as it accelerates northward.
there are a couple of swirls.. one in the central bahamas and another in the nw caribbean.. that are worth a glance, but not doing anything as of yet.
pretty much all the 00z runs have a tropical system in the western atlantic by early next week. seems axiomatic that we're going to get a mid-october storm.
HF 0908z08october
Edited by HanKFranK (Sat Oct 08 2005 05:22 AM)
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