wasn't expecting they'd classify it, but the persistent eye feature and convective ring with complete occlusion for two days has been waaaay too convincing. those dynamic models pushing it northeast to the iberian peninsula don't agree with any of the globals.. which all turn it nne into an oncoming trough. the official taking it up towards ireland and having it absorbed near 40n is probably the right answer--not much push directly ne. subtd 22 was quickly declassified last night, but is moving more slowly wnw this morning. still a weak puff of convection, but this is a badly sheared system and i don't totally disagree with nhc dropping it (though it was a bit hasty). strange thing is that more of the global models actually track it now, up towards the nc coast. only chances that it redevelops though would involve the upper low moving nw over it and it becoming re-established in the light-shear zone of the core... or it getting through the subsidence/shear double whammy on the western periphery of the upper trough. it's probably done. 94L persists, looking a tad worse for the wear. it's near 14/54 now plodding ever westward. the environment ahead is supporting a lot of convection, so in another day or two it could potentially become involved with all that. somewhat better chances that it weakens further and fades out. have to watch the five o clock to ten o clock sweep around that upper low as it's supporting lots of convection and especially because there's some antecedent turning in the low levels along this region. nothing much right now, but there are some interesting-looking areas near the bahamas. really interesting way to get vince, too. HF 1553z09october
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