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Gulf area up to 60% chance for weak development. A new Atlantic system is now up with a 20% chance for development, FL east coast and GA coast should watch for mid-late this week.**
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 291 (Idalia) , Major: 291 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 291 (Idalia) Major: 291 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
weirded out yet?
      Tue Oct 11 2005 04:47 AM

we get one of these transition systems in most years. maybe a third of those are in the eastern atlantic at high latitude. vince isn't the first ET-origin system to get started out there, but they're usually the type of cutoffs that meander back to the west. this one just went east... all the way to the gulf of cadiz. so now we have the first landfall of record in the european continent. if it were on a slightly more eastward trajectory it might have threaded the strait of gibraltar and gone on into the mediterranean.. but thankfully the weirdness will stop perpetuating this morning as the storm becomes nontropical over southwestern spain.
anywho, our old buddy subtropical depression 22 is still trudging nw a beam of hatteras right now. it's been firing an odd thunderstorm or two, not losing definition to its low-level remnant. crossing the gulf stream this morning and according to forecaster stewart about to briefly entry a low-shear environment.. the dead zone between the northerly flow of the upper low and the southerly flow behind the surface trough. very low probability of regeneration, but it should add moisture and energy to the onshore flow and tropical conveyor in the northeast that has over the last few days caused a lot of rain. there's been some decent flooding in the northeast since the weekend... the mess that sheared off of tammy and that yucatan invest that rode up the front really pushed a lot of rain up there.
models are backing off on the gale system they've been showing arcing around the back side of that upper low, passing bermuda.. but now stalling well offshore the northeast and then backing away to the east. looks feasible, but we still don't have more than a disturbance near the ne caribbean for now. clark has already highlighted the potential with this one.
maybe a little more disturbed weather lingering in the western or central caribbean after that, but no real model support for it.. and the longer range modeling isn't showing much in the long range. unless the pattern amplifies again this may be our last batch of activity in the basin for a while, as mjo is forecasted inhibitive for the rest of the month. it hasn't worked that well this year, but perhaps things will ease off as the added strike against of late october comes into play.
things had better quit, or we'll be revisiting our inner fred flintstone.. then speaking greek. tpratch, can you do that?
HF 0447z11october

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic MikeCAdministrator Tue Oct 11 2005 04:47 AM
. * * The long, strange ride continues Clark   Tue Oct 11 2005 03:19 AM
. * * Something new? Clark   Tue Oct 11 2005 08:27 PM
. * * weirded out yet? HanKFranK   Tue Oct 11 2005 04:47 AM
. * * Re: weirded out yet? doug   Tue Oct 11 2005 05:26 PM
. * * Speaking Greek tpratch   Tue Oct 11 2005 10:56 AM
. * * Re: weirded out yet? Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 11 2005 05:48 AM
. * * Its official - Europes first on record Rich B   Tue Oct 11 2005 08:47 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record dave foster   Tue Oct 11 2005 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record dave foster   Tue Oct 11 2005 06:24 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record meranto   Wed Oct 12 2005 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record dave foster   Wed Oct 12 2005 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record Rick on boat in Mobile   Wed Oct 12 2005 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record Cindi   Wed Oct 12 2005 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record FlaMommy   Wed Oct 12 2005 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 12 2005 06:30 PM
. * * a few obs HanKFranK   Wed Oct 12 2005 07:59 PM
. * * Re: a few obs typhoon_tip   Wed Oct 12 2005 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record GuppieGrouper   Wed Oct 12 2005 12:34 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record Margie   Wed Oct 12 2005 03:15 PM
. * * quieting down HanKFranK   Wed Oct 12 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Question for you-all Beach   Wed Oct 12 2005 06:12 PM
. * * Re: quieting down Myles   Wed Oct 12 2005 03:13 PM
. * * Re: quieting down Clark   Wed Oct 12 2005 07:57 PM
. * * Re: quieting down doug   Wed Oct 12 2005 04:07 PM
. * * And they say... Beach   Tue Oct 11 2005 11:27 AM
. * * Re: And they say... GuppieGrouper   Tue Oct 11 2005 01:28 PM
. * * Re: And they say... Adam   Tue Oct 11 2005 05:34 PM
. * * Re: And they say... GuppieGrouper   Tue Oct 11 2005 10:31 PM
. * * Re: And they say... HanKFranK   Tue Oct 11 2005 10:54 PM
. * * Re: And they say... Margie   Wed Oct 12 2005 01:39 AM
. * * Something Local Beach   Wed Oct 12 2005 11:37 AM
. * * Re: And they say... typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 11 2005 11:08 PM
. * * Re:MODELS HURRICANELONNY   Tue Oct 11 2005 10:47 PM
. * * winter website tashina   Tue Oct 11 2005 08:44 PM
. * * Re: And they say... ChessieStorm   Tue Oct 11 2005 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Its official - Europes first on record SMOKE   Tue Oct 11 2005 10:51 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Domino   Mon Oct 10 2005 12:07 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Ed DunhamAdministrator   Mon Oct 10 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic weatherwatcher999   Mon Oct 10 2005 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic bulletdodger   Mon Oct 10 2005 02:47 AM
. * * Season danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 10 2005 08:53 AM
. * * Re: Season josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 09:08 AM
. * * Re: Season josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 10:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Margie   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:51 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic weatherwatcher999   Mon Oct 10 2005 12:19 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic dave foster   Sun Oct 09 2005 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Hugh   Sun Oct 09 2005 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Hugh   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:06 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic josef   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic danielwAdministrator   Mon Oct 10 2005 12:24 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic dave foster   Mon Oct 10 2005 12:46 AM
. * * vince/22L/94L HanKFranK   Mon Oct 10 2005 02:22 AM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L Steve H1   Mon Oct 10 2005 12:05 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L dave foster   Mon Oct 10 2005 03:04 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L OrlandoDan   Mon Oct 10 2005 10:33 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L dave foster   Mon Oct 10 2005 10:43 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L Steve H1   Mon Oct 10 2005 03:57 PM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L emackl   Mon Oct 10 2005 09:05 PM
. * * Re: vince/22/94L ... 97L? Bloodstar   Mon Oct 10 2005 09:43 PM
. * * Re: vince/22/94L ... 97L? emackl   Mon Oct 10 2005 11:21 PM
. * * Re: vince/22/94L ... 97L? Hugh   Tue Oct 11 2005 02:53 AM
. * * Re: vince/22L/94L josef   Mon Oct 10 2005 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Margie   Mon Oct 10 2005 12:38 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Lysis   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Beaumont, TX   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Thunderbird12   Sun Oct 09 2005 09:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Lysis   Sun Oct 09 2005 06:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Hugh   Sun Oct 09 2005 03:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 09 2005 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Clark   Sun Oct 09 2005 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic typhoon_tip   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Margie   Sun Oct 09 2005 10:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Old Sailor   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic La Nimo   Sun Oct 09 2005 11:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Old Sailor   Mon Oct 10 2005 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Clark   Sun Oct 09 2005 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Rabbit   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:47 PM
. * * Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! NONAME   Sun Oct 09 2005 08:53 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! dave foster   Sun Oct 09 2005 09:58 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! Lysis   Sun Oct 09 2005 10:31 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!! Rich B   Sun Oct 09 2005 09:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic Rabbit   Sun Oct 09 2005 05:51 PM
. * * oddball HanKFranK   Sun Oct 09 2005 03:53 PM

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