A tad bit active in the tropics right now, but nothing imminent.
The broad upper trough is finally starting to kick out to the north & northwest. A broad area of low pressure at the surface extends from 15N/80W to 20N/70W to 25N/65W. Weak low-level circulations are found at 23N/70W (non-convective and in the base of the upper trough) and 24N/66.5W (on the western edge of the broad convective band along the periphery of the trough, but neither appear likely candidates for tropical development. The latter of the two is the most interesting of the two and may ultimately undergo extratropical or subtropical development, but nothing tropical there.
The area in the western/central Caribbean is more interesting, however. Underneath the influence of convergence associated with the aforementioned surface trough and very strong diffluence (diverging winds) aloft, convection continues to fire across much of the region. However, it appears as though things could be consolidating near 17.5N/74W, or just east-southeast of Jamaica, in the vicinity of a mid-level vortex. Upper level shear has weakened slightly over the past 24hr and as the upper low continues to move away toward the north could continue to weaken. With the slight approach of a unseasonably strong upper ridge from the northwest in advance of a trough in the central US, upper level conditions should become a bit more favorable over the next couple of days.
If what is out there now lingers over the next two-three days as its upper level forcing weakens and moves away, we could see something develop. However, we've seen convection like this on a daily basis, so I hesitate to call for anything to develop out of that mess from the get-go. Greater model support is being given to the feature discussed above near 24N, with the energy from this feature ultimately feeding into that disturbance as it develops, but I'm not quite sold on that. It's something to watch at this point with a shot at developing, but not a very high one -- the same could be said for anything across the rest of the basin right now.
The West Pacific has seen a typhoon intensify from a TS to a cat. 3 system over the course of 12hr today thanks to a highly favorable upper-level environment induced by an upper level trough passing to the north of the system. Interesting to watch, at least.
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