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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC

a few obs
Wed Oct 12 2005 07:59 PM

well tip if you've got any good ideas about those teleconnection indicies i'd be glad to hear 'em, because my term project in one class this semester will involve me tying the phase of those suckers to tropical cyclogenesis... if it works, anyway. gonna have to learn principal component analysis in a crunch here, man.
anyhow speaking of SOI, it's been averaging positive since mid september or so, with the odd dip here or there.. but has gone strongly positive in the last few days. this sort of action will get the easterly flow in the tropical pacific really kicking and strengthen the upwelling off of south america. got a hunch next year will be a la nina year. in these sorts of transitional winters... i.e. from near neutral to cold ENSO, you can get some pretty serious cold-air outbreaks over the continent. a couple of quick analogs i can think up are the '84-'85 winter and '95-'96. there's already been an general trend towards blocking and higher heights in the northern latitudes so far this fall, so i'm reckoning that winter '05-'06 could have some embedded extremes early.. then probably transition to the warm/dry south and mild/moist north configuration that is particular to la nina, if it actually does come on.
anyhow, worth noting that a few of the 12z runs are becoming more interesting in that a nw caribbean system is starting to emergy early next week. around the time we're done dealing with whatever semi-tropical feature tries to pop out of the northern end of that upper trough near bermuda, the lower end might be brewing something up as the pattern relaxes and more ridging builds in over all that persistent low-level convergence.
in the short term the northern mid atlantic and southwestern new england are in big trouble as persistent tropical-origin rains keep funneling in off the atlantic. draw a 100 mile circle around new york city and anywhere in that zone is going to likely see widespread regional flooding.
HF 1959z12october

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	MikeC	Wed Oct 12 2005 07:59 PM
The long, strange ride continues	Clark	Tue Oct 11 2005 03:19 AM
Something new?	Clark	Tue Oct 11 2005 08:27 PM
weirded out yet?	HanKFranK	Tue Oct 11 2005 04:47 AM
Re: weirded out yet?	doug	Tue Oct 11 2005 05:26 PM
Speaking Greek	tpratch	Tue Oct 11 2005 10:56 AM
Re: weirded out yet?	Storm Hunter	Tue Oct 11 2005 05:48 AM
Its official - Europes first on record	Rich B	Tue Oct 11 2005 08:47 AM
Re: Its official - Europes first on record	dave foster	Tue Oct 11 2005 04:13 PM
Re: Its official - Europes first on record	dave foster	Tue Oct 11 2005 06:24 PM
Re: Its official - Europes first on record	meranto	Wed Oct 12 2005 11:47 AM
Re: Its official - Europes first on record	dave foster	Wed Oct 12 2005 06:10 PM
Re: Its official - Europes first on record	Rick on boat in Mobile	Wed Oct 12 2005 12:09 PM
Re: Its official - Europes first on record	Cindi	Wed Oct 12 2005 02:26 PM
Re: Its official - Europes first on record	FlaMommy	Wed Oct 12 2005 04:39 PM
Re: Its official - Europes first on record	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 12 2005 06:30 PM
a few obs	HanKFranK	Wed Oct 12 2005 07:59 PM
Re: a few obs	typhoon_tip	Wed Oct 12 2005 09:08 PM
Re: Its official - Europes first on record	GuppieGrouper	Wed Oct 12 2005 12:34 PM
Re: Its official - Europes first on record	Margie	Wed Oct 12 2005 03:15 PM
quieting down	HanKFranK	Wed Oct 12 2005 02:32 PM
Question for you-all	Beach	Wed Oct 12 2005 06:12 PM
Re: quieting down	Myles	Wed Oct 12 2005 03:13 PM
Re: quieting down	Clark	Wed Oct 12 2005 07:57 PM
Re: quieting down	doug	Wed Oct 12 2005 04:07 PM
And they say...	Beach	Tue Oct 11 2005 11:27 AM
Re: And they say...	GuppieGrouper	Tue Oct 11 2005 01:28 PM
Re: And they say...	Adam	Tue Oct 11 2005 05:34 PM
Re: And they say...	GuppieGrouper	Tue Oct 11 2005 10:31 PM
Re: And they say...	HanKFranK	Tue Oct 11 2005 10:54 PM
Re: And they say...	Margie	Wed Oct 12 2005 01:39 AM
Something Local	Beach	Wed Oct 12 2005 11:37 AM
Re: And they say...	typhoon_tip	Tue Oct 11 2005 11:08 PM
Re:MODELS	HURRICANELONNY	Tue Oct 11 2005 10:47 PM
winter website	tashina	Tue Oct 11 2005 08:44 PM
Re: And they say...	ChessieStorm	Tue Oct 11 2005 03:43 PM
Re: Its official - Europes first on record	SMOKE	Tue Oct 11 2005 10:51 AM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Domino	Mon Oct 10 2005 12:07 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Ed Dunham	Mon Oct 10 2005 02:46 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	weatherwatcher999	Mon Oct 10 2005 03:11 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	josef	Mon Oct 10 2005 03:36 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	bulletdodger	Mon Oct 10 2005 02:47 AM
Season	danielw	Mon Oct 10 2005 08:53 AM
Re: Season	josef	Mon Oct 10 2005 09:08 AM
Re: Season	josef	Mon Oct 10 2005 09:20 AM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	josef	Sun Oct 09 2005 10:39 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Margie	Sun Oct 09 2005 11:51 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	weatherwatcher999	Mon Oct 10 2005 12:19 AM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	dave foster	Sun Oct 09 2005 10:50 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	josef	Sun Oct 09 2005 11:09 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Hugh	Sun Oct 09 2005 10:46 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	josef	Sun Oct 09 2005 10:54 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Hugh	Sun Oct 09 2005 11:06 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	josef	Sun Oct 09 2005 11:16 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	danielw	Mon Oct 10 2005 12:24 AM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	dave foster	Mon Oct 10 2005 12:46 AM
vince/22L/94L	HanKFranK	Mon Oct 10 2005 02:22 AM
Re: vince/22L/94L	Steve H1	Mon Oct 10 2005 12:05 PM
Re: vince/22L/94L	dave foster	Mon Oct 10 2005 03:04 PM
Re: vince/22L/94L	OrlandoDan	Mon Oct 10 2005 10:33 PM
Re: vince/22L/94L	dave foster	Mon Oct 10 2005 10:43 PM
Re: vince/22L/94L	Steve H1	Mon Oct 10 2005 03:57 PM
Re: vince/22L/94L	emackl	Mon Oct 10 2005 09:05 PM
Re: vince/22/94L ... 97L?	Bloodstar	Mon Oct 10 2005 09:43 PM
Re: vince/22/94L ... 97L?	emackl	Mon Oct 10 2005 11:21 PM
Re: vince/22/94L ... 97L?	Hugh	Tue Oct 11 2005 02:53 AM
Re: vince/22L/94L	josef	Mon Oct 10 2005 09:16 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Margie	Mon Oct 10 2005 12:38 AM
Re: Hurricane Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Lysis	Sun Oct 09 2005 11:29 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Beaumont, TX	Sun Oct 09 2005 06:06 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Thunderbird12	Sun Oct 09 2005 09:48 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Lysis	Sun Oct 09 2005 06:21 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Hugh	Sun Oct 09 2005 03:12 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 09 2005 03:53 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Clark	Sun Oct 09 2005 05:37 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 09 2005 11:41 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 09 2005 11:50 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Margie	Sun Oct 09 2005 10:37 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Old Sailor	Sun Oct 09 2005 07:28 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	La Nimo	Sun Oct 09 2005 11:33 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Old Sailor	Mon Oct 10 2005 12:32 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Clark	Sun Oct 09 2005 07:57 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Rabbit	Sun Oct 09 2005 08:47 PM
Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!!	NONAME	Sun Oct 09 2005 08:53 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!!	dave foster	Sun Oct 09 2005 09:58 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!!	Lysis	Sun Oct 09 2005 10:31 PM
Re: Hurricane Vince Where!!!!!!!!!!!!!	Rich B	Sun Oct 09 2005 09:24 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Vince forms in the Far Eastern Atlantic	Rabbit	Sun Oct 09 2005 05:51 PM
oddball	HanKFranK	Sun Oct 09 2005 03:53 PM

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