8AM Sunday Update Tropical Depression 24 is very slowly getting its act together. The current intensity forecast brings it to at or near a Category 2 hurricane by the end of the run (120 hours out) near the western tip of Cuba.
It is likely to become Tropical Storm Wilma sometime later today or tonight.
If this system were to impact the Gulf coast or Florida, it would be seen very late in the week, therefore there is quite a bit of time to discern what may happen and where it may go. Anything beyond a few days at this point is speculation. Therefore, it's important for folks in Florida and parts of the Gulf Coast to watch this one over the next several days to see if the suggested northward turn happens. (It may not)
If you want to let us know what you think of where the system may go, use the forecast lounge.
7PM Update TD#24 has formed in the western Caribbean. Movement may bend toward the north in the later term. More to come in the future.
The system is expected to strengthen potentially toward hurricane status, and would be Wilma, the last name in the Atlantic list. There exists some potential for a major hurricane to form out of this.
Original Update The tropical wave that has formed in the western Caribbean, 98L near Jamaica isn't quite tropical yet, but it seems likely that it will develop into a tropical depression this morning. And likely head generally westward toward Central America seems the most likely path at this moment. However, some models do take it northwest over Cuba, and in that case we'll have to watch it as well.
Recon may fly out to check this system later today.
Conditions are improving for development, and strengthening is a good possibility if it stays south of Cuba (which I believe is likely to happen). If so, Intensity wise, this storm will have a lot going for it in its favor in the next few days.
Chances for tropical development of the disturbance near Jamaica in the next two days (98L). Code:
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Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean
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