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90L crossing over Florida with flooding rains, strong winds and brief tornadoes/spouts. Next week eyes turn to W Gulf in active June pattern

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 288 (Idalia) , Major: 288 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 288 (Idalia) Major: 288 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Random Chaos
Weather Analyst

Reged:
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland

Re: wilma on the way
Sun Oct 16 2005 01:09 AM

New GFDL model out taking it to a Cat 3. Given the track record on the GFDL intensity forcasts for the last major storms this year, the running average of intensity is generally a fairly good average:

00Z GFDL predicted a weak Cat 5
06Z GFDL predicted a strong Cat 3
12Z GFDL predicted a strong Cat 5
18Z GFDL predicts a weak Cat 3

Based on the average of these model runs, I'd expect a Cat 4 out of this system right now. Even more amazing, none of the GFDL model runs are trying to disipate the system, so it might be that the Cat 5 runs aren't so far fetched.

The runs now take her into western Cuba heading north. The Gulf coast and all of Florida needs to watch this system. I don't think the SSTs in the Gulf will support yet another Cat 5 system, but we said the same thing when Rita went through and look at what it did. If Wilma (yeah...it's almost certain she will be Wilma by morning...) heads toward the pan handle of FL, she will be heading over the worst oceanic conditions (in terms of SSTs). If she heads east, she'll hit land before having a chance to weaken much. If she heads west she will go up strait over the hot loop current. The track in the 5+ day period will be the determining factor for this storm's strength at landfall.

--RC

GFDL model runs: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Hurricane Heat Potential: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20051015.gif
SSTs: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/sst2.watl.20051015.gif
(NRL SST/HHC Index for the above two links: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean	MikeC	Sun Oct 16 2005 01:09 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean	hurricane expert	Mon Oct 17 2005 02:52 AM
confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps	lunkerhunter	Mon Oct 17 2005 02:28 AM
Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps	typhoon_tip	Mon Oct 17 2005 02:33 AM
Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps	lunkerhunter	Mon Oct 17 2005 02:50 AM
Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps	typhoon_tip	Mon Oct 17 2005 03:22 AM
Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps	lunkerhunter	Mon Oct 17 2005 03:27 AM
Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps	typhoon_tip	Mon Oct 17 2005 03:35 AM
Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps	typhoon_tip	Mon Oct 17 2005 03:30 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean	Beaumont, TX	Mon Oct 17 2005 12:25 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean	dave foster	Mon Oct 17 2005 12:49 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean	tornado00	Sun Oct 16 2005 12:38 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Random Chaos	Sat Oct 15 2005 01:19 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Hugh	Sat Oct 15 2005 01:03 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Ed Dunham	Sat Oct 15 2005 01:16 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Ron Basso	Sat Oct 15 2005 02:12 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Margie	Sat Oct 15 2005 02:53 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	GuppieGrouper	Sat Oct 15 2005 02:40 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Thunderbird12	Sat Oct 15 2005 02:51 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	HanKFranK	Sat Oct 15 2005 03:02 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	bobbutts	Sat Oct 15 2005 05:07 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Spoken	Sat Oct 15 2005 08:18 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 15 2005 04:06 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Goosus	Sat Oct 15 2005 05:25 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	scottsvb	Sat Oct 15 2005 05:17 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 15 2005 05:28 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 15 2005 05:25 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	scottsvb	Sat Oct 15 2005 05:32 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 15 2005 05:38 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	scottsvb	Sat Oct 15 2005 05:48 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 15 2005 06:08 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	scottsvb	Sat Oct 15 2005 06:26 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 15 2005 06:31 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Ron Basso	Sat Oct 15 2005 06:12 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Hugh	Sat Oct 15 2005 06:19 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Thunderbird12	Sat Oct 15 2005 07:17 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 07:25 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 07:39 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Hugh	Sat Oct 15 2005 07:42 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Rabbit	Sat Oct 15 2005 07:56 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 08:22 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sat Oct 15 2005 08:41 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 08:47 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 08:49 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 15 2005 08:54 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 08:56 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 15 2005 09:06 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	sara33	Sat Oct 15 2005 11:51 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 15 2005 11:56 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 12:15 AM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	sara33	Sun Oct 16 2005 12:10 AM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 08:59 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Clark	Sat Oct 15 2005 09:26 PM
thanks clark and others	LoisCane	Sun Oct 16 2005 12:20 AM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 09:35 PM
wilma on the way	HanKFranK	Sat Oct 15 2005 10:35 PM
Re: wilma on the way	GuppieGrouper	Sun Oct 16 2005 12:54 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Random Chaos	Sun Oct 16 2005 01:09 AM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 01:18 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Clark	Sun Oct 16 2005 04:28 AM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 04:37 AM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 04:40 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Clark	Sun Oct 16 2005 03:17 PM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 04:33 PM
Re: wilma on the way	scottsvb	Sun Oct 16 2005 04:39 PM
Re: wilma on the way	k___g	Sun Oct 16 2005 04:45 PM
Re: wilma on the way	weatherwatcher999	Sun Oct 16 2005 04:15 PM
Re: wilma on the way	MissBecky	Sun Oct 16 2005 04:50 PM
Re: wilma on the way	bobbutts	Sun Oct 16 2005 05:14 PM
how far west she goes makes a big difference	LoisCane	Sun Oct 16 2005 05:16 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Old Sailor	Sun Oct 16 2005 05:01 PM
Re: wilma on the way	GuppieGrouper	Sun Oct 16 2005 05:20 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 16 2005 05:48 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 16 2005 06:10 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Margie	Sun Oct 16 2005 06:40 PM
Re: wilma on the way	damejune2	Sun Oct 16 2005 06:49 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Hootowl	Sun Oct 16 2005 06:59 PM
Re: wilma on the way	damejune2	Sun Oct 16 2005 07:07 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Lysis	Sun Oct 16 2005 07:14 PM
Re: wilma on the way	damejune2	Sun Oct 16 2005 07:23 PM
Re: wilma on the way	StormHound	Sun Oct 16 2005 08:26 PM
Re: wilma on the way	weatherwatcher2	Sun Oct 16 2005 08:39 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Tazmanian93	Mon Oct 17 2005 12:51 AM
Re: wilma on the way	weatherwatcher2	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:07 AM
Re: wilma on the way	weatherwatcher2	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:10 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Lee-Delray	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:16 AM
Re: wilma on the way	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:31 AM
Re: wilma on the way	weatherwatcher2	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:18 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Genesis	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:32 AM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Mon Oct 17 2005 02:03 AM
Re: wilma on the way	dave foster	Mon Oct 17 2005 02:48 AM
Bear Watch	danielw	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:57 AM
Re: Bear Watch	Jamiewx	Mon Oct 17 2005 02:06 AM
Re: Bear Watch	Wxwatcher2	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:01 AM
Re: Bear Watch Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	The Force 2005	Mon Oct 17 2005 02:31 AM
Re: Bear Watch	Beaumont, TX	Mon Oct 17 2005 03:51 AM
Re: Bear Watch Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	ralphfl	Mon Oct 17 2005 02:48 AM
Re: Bear Watch	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:23 AM
Re: Bear Watch	typhoon_tip	Mon Oct 17 2005 03:29 AM
Re: Bear Watch	abyrd	Mon Oct 17 2005 03:02 AM
Re: Bear Watch	ralphfl	Mon Oct 17 2005 03:15 AM
Re: Bear Watch	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:57 AM
Re: Bear Watch	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Mon Oct 17 2005 05:06 AM
Re: Bear Watch	ralphfl	Mon Oct 17 2005 05:39 AM
Re: Bear Watch	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Mon Oct 17 2005 06:19 AM
Re: Bear Watch	ralphfl	Mon Oct 17 2005 06:27 AM
Re: Bear Watch	scottsvb	Mon Oct 17 2005 06:50 AM
Re: Bear Watch	Hugh	Mon Oct 17 2005 10:21 AM
Re: Bear Watch	SMOKE	Mon Oct 17 2005 10:44 AM
Re: Bear Watch	Hugh	Mon Oct 17 2005 11:03 AM
Re: Bear Watch	SMOKE	Mon Oct 17 2005 11:23 AM
Re: Bear Watch	dave foster	Mon Oct 17 2005 11:40 AM
Re: Bear Watch	Storm Hunter	Mon Oct 17 2005 05:45 AM
Re: Bear Watch	danielw	Mon Oct 17 2005 06:12 AM
Re: Bear Watch	scottsvb	Mon Oct 17 2005 06:09 AM
Re: Bear Watch	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Mon Oct 17 2005 06:05 AM
Re: Bear Watch	Storm Hunter	Mon Oct 17 2005 05:22 AM
Models and TD24	danielw	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:46 AM
Re: wilma on the way	weatherwatcher2	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:39 AM
Re: wilma on the way	sara33	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:47 AM
Re: wilma on the way Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	SirCane	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:54 AM
Re: wilma on the way	weatherwatcher2	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:55 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Lee-Delray	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:23 AM
Re: wilma on the way	charlottefl	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:29 AM
Re: wilma on the way	bobbutts	Sun Oct 16 2005 09:06 PM
Re: wilma on the way	crpeavley	Sun Oct 16 2005 10:52 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Lee-Delray	Sun Oct 16 2005 11:16 PM
Re: wilma on the way	GuppieGrouper	Sun Oct 16 2005 11:46 PM
Models	Ed Dunham	Mon Oct 17 2005 12:58 AM
Re: Models	Kevin	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:10 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Lee-Delray	Sun Oct 16 2005 11:49 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Lee-Delray	Sun Oct 16 2005 11:33 PM
Re: wilma on the way	MichaelA	Sun Oct 16 2005 11:39 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Lee-Delray	Sun Oct 16 2005 11:45 PM
Re: wilma on the way	weatherwatcher2	Sun Oct 16 2005 09:55 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 16 2005 08:42 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Jamiewx	Sun Oct 16 2005 07:20 PM
Re: wilma on the way	weatherwatcher999	Sun Oct 16 2005 06:39 PM
Re: wilma on the way	HanKFranK	Sun Oct 16 2005 05:47 PM
Re: wilma on the way	sara33	Sun Oct 16 2005 05:09 PM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 05:08 PM
Re: wilma on the way	LoisCane	Sun Oct 16 2005 05:14 PM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 06:14 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 16 2005 06:50 PM
Re: wilma on the way	damejune2	Sun Oct 16 2005 07:02 PM
Re: wilma on the way Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	The Force 2005	Sun Oct 16 2005 05:33 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Convergence	Sun Oct 16 2005 05:48 AM
Re: wilma on the way Killed -- Sent to Graveyard	The Force 2005	Sun Oct 16 2005 05:52 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 16 2005 06:17 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 16 2005 06:31 AM
Re: wilma on the way	swimaway19	Sun Oct 16 2005 12:47 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 16 2005 12:53 PM
Re: wilma on the way	scottsvb	Sun Oct 16 2005 01:01 PM
Re: wilma on the way	scottsvb	Sun Oct 16 2005 01:30 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Thunderbird12	Sun Oct 16 2005 02:38 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 16 2005 02:43 PM
Re: wilma on the way	scottsvb	Sun Oct 16 2005 02:49 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Storm Hunter	Sun Oct 16 2005 02:37 PM
Re: wilma on the way	GuppieGrouper	Sun Oct 16 2005 06:44 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Sneakbridge	Sun Oct 16 2005 11:28 AM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 05:03 AM
Re: wilma on the way	HanKFranK	Sun Oct 16 2005 05:20 AM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 02:58 PM
Re: wilma on the way	Random Chaos	Sun Oct 16 2005 04:03 AM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 04:23 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Margie	Sun Oct 16 2005 04:09 AM
Re: wilma on the way	damejune2	Sun Oct 16 2005 01:32 AM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 02:20 AM
Re: wilma on the way	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Oct 16 2005 02:22 AM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 02:25 AM
Re: wilma on the way	danielw	Sun Oct 16 2005 02:31 AM
Re: wilma on the way	sara33	Sun Oct 16 2005 03:38 AM
Re: wilma on the way	debwire	Sun Oct 16 2005 04:06 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Margie	Sun Oct 16 2005 04:05 AM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 02:53 AM
Re: wilma on the way	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Oct 16 2005 02:50 AM
Re: wilma on the way	weatherwatcher2	Sun Oct 16 2005 03:14 AM
Re: wilma on the way	CaneTrackerInSoFl	Sun Oct 16 2005 03:29 AM
Re: wilma on the way	weatherwatcher2	Sun Oct 16 2005 03:34 AM
Re: wilma on the way	GuppieGrouper	Sun Oct 16 2005 01:50 AM
Looking back on models from earlier this week	Rasvar	Sun Oct 16 2005 01:57 AM
Re: wilma on the way	damejune2	Sat Oct 15 2005 11:54 PM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 12:48 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Old Sailor	Sun Oct 16 2005 01:03 AM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 01:11 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Beaumont, TX	Sun Oct 16 2005 12:13 AM
Re: wilma on the way	typhoon_tip	Sun Oct 16 2005 12:23 AM
Re: wilma on the way	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 10:43 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 08:53 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 07:55 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 15 2005 07:24 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 06:18 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 15 2005 06:17 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Steve H1	Sat Oct 15 2005 06:24 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Hugh	Sat Oct 15 2005 06:27 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 06:33 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 06:43 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 15 2005 06:49 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 07:00 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 07:09 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 15 2005 07:15 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	typhoon_tip	Sat Oct 15 2005 06:24 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Storm Hunter	Sat Oct 15 2005 05:59 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Hugh	Sat Oct 15 2005 06:11 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	scottsvb	Sat Oct 15 2005 05:34 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Hugh	Sat Oct 15 2005 03:18 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Hugh	Sat Oct 15 2005 02:56 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	dave foster	Sat Oct 15 2005 03:03 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Hugh	Sat Oct 15 2005 03:15 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	Hugh	Sat Oct 15 2005 01:26 PM
Re: Watching Near Jamaica	dave foster	Sat Oct 15 2005 01:32 PM

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