I realize that making a sharp right hook from the yucatan is not the same as being there already and heading east. But just a reminder that Hurricane Mitch in 98 after it split into 2 pieces one re-emerged into the bay of campeche, became tropical storm mitch and landfalled near Ft. Myers, with a similar large scale pattern in place, but I think the real key here is time since the thing is barely moving I don't think the models have gotten a good handle on it yet.
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