Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean

BAMx and LBARx are fairly simple models (compared to some of the more recent dynamic models) and they tend to be less accurate - especially the further out you go.

The various BAMx models look at different layers in the atmosphere for steering information, which is why they often come up with VERY different tracks. The problem with relying on them is that a storm isn't steered by the same layers of the atmosphere at different points in its life, and at different strengths .....

Its too early to know what's going to happen with this one, but the synoptic pattern at this time of the year tends to support recurvature as storms come northward, and it also tends to support a general northward motion over time. The reason is that as fall progresses troughs tend to make it further down in latitude, and they tend to be stronger - in the summer they almost never make it all the way to the gulf - in the fall they often do.

First, we have to see this thing gets its act together. I'm in the camp that says it probably will, but I'm still on the fence in terms of what I think about an ultimate track. Note that the NHC's "track" is basically just up the middle of a big BLOB - its not until they (and everyone else) are able to come up with a better handle on what they think is going to occur in the atmosphere that will steer what this turns into, and the ultimate strength that this thing has at that time, that a better prognostication of where its going to go can be made.

IMHO anyone from the Keys to roughly NO needs to be paying attention to this thing right now - that's obviously a HUGE swath of real estate, but looking in on this system at least daily right now would not be a bad idea. In the next 3-4 days a significant part of that area can probably be eliminated from consideration - but right now that would not be prudent.

My best guess right now is that IF it develops as expected the most likely path is east of north from the Yucatan channel - that is based on the synoptics and climatology. Looking at the current upper-air pattern there is no solid support for anything more specific than that which I can find - but I don't do this for a living, I'm a hobbyist......

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