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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26

Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 272 (Idalia) , Major: 272 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 272 (Idalia) Major: 272 (Idalia)

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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser

Reged:
Posts: 1060
Loc: Okaloosa County, Florida

Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
Mon Oct 17 2005 12:01 PM

Well.... this is interesting! The newest GFDL appears to have shifted back toward the western tip of Cuba, and the LBAR is even further east, calling for Wilma to cross near Havana (I think that's where Havana is), and then move across the peninsula south of Laka Okechobe(sp?). These models make the NHC forecast seem much more reasonable than the earlier runs did (which were all west of the NHC forecast)... but they also bring to light the fact that we just don't know this far out where Wilma is going to go.

Edit: I just saw others posting while I was typing the above.
Random: The models were in very good agreement earlier, but now the latest runs seem to diverge again - or maybe they've just shifted back to the east and the models that are showing a Yucatan landfall have not been updated yet (I know these models are older runs than the current GFDL and LBAR, but don't know when they will be updated).

It could be yet another frustrating week along the central and eastern Gulf Coast.

Edit 2: WU has updated the GFS, which now calls for a turn to the north and eventually NNE, looks like the Big Bend or south of there longer-term.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)

Edited by Hugh (Mon Oct 17 2005 12:07 PM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	MikeC	Mon Oct 17 2005 12:01 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Beaumont, TX	Tue Oct 18 2005 02:15 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Tue Oct 18 2005 02:19 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Hugh	Tue Oct 18 2005 02:24 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Tue Oct 18 2005 02:36 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Hugh	Tue Oct 18 2005 02:41 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Tue Oct 18 2005 02:43 AM
Recon	twizted sizter	Tue Oct 18 2005 02:50 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Tue Oct 18 2005 02:46 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	weatherwatcher2	Tue Oct 18 2005 02:52 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Tue Oct 18 2005 02:57 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Hugh	Tue Oct 18 2005 03:00 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	DebbiePSL	Tue Oct 18 2005 03:05 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	ralphfl	Tue Oct 18 2005 03:40 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Random Chaos	Tue Oct 18 2005 03:47 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	DebbiePSL	Tue Oct 18 2005 04:05 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	ftlaudbob	Tue Oct 18 2005 04:10 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	DebbiePSL	Tue Oct 18 2005 04:21 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	danielw	Tue Oct 18 2005 04:48 AM
1 AM EDT	danielw	Tue Oct 18 2005 05:26 AM
Recon Update	danielw	Tue Oct 18 2005 05:36 AM
Re: Recon Update	danielw	Tue Oct 18 2005 06:08 AM
Re: Recon Update	scottsvb	Tue Oct 18 2005 06:11 AM
Re: Recon Update	Storm Hunter	Tue Oct 18 2005 06:16 AM
Re: Recon Update	Storm Hunter	Tue Oct 18 2005 06:20 AM
Re: Recon Update	Multi-Decadal Signal	Tue Oct 18 2005 06:36 AM
Re: Recon Update	jlauderdal	Tue Oct 18 2005 11:19 AM
Crossing Florida?	danielw	Tue Oct 18 2005 06:40 AM
Re: Crossing Florida?	danielw	Tue Oct 18 2005 06:55 AM
Re: Crossing Florida?	LadyStorm	Tue Oct 18 2005 09:44 AM
Re: Crossing Florida?	NewWatcher	Tue Oct 18 2005 11:20 AM
Re: Crossing Florida?	HURRICANELONNY	Tue Oct 18 2005 11:37 AM
Cause of potential FL hit	tpratch	Tue Oct 18 2005 11:34 AM
Re: Cause of potential FL hit	Ed G	Tue Oct 18 2005 11:47 AM
Re: Crossing Florida?	charlottefl	Tue Oct 18 2005 09:32 AM
Re: Crossing Florida?	dave foster	Tue Oct 18 2005 09:45 AM
Re: Crossing Florida?	Hugh	Tue Oct 18 2005 10:29 AM
Re: Crossing Florida?	Cindi	Tue Oct 18 2005 10:45 AM
Re: Crossing Florida?	Steve H1	Tue Oct 18 2005 10:50 AM
Re: Crossing Florida?	Margie	Tue Oct 18 2005 11:35 AM
Re: Recon Update	Storm Hunter	Tue Oct 18 2005 06:02 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	The Force 2005	Tue Oct 18 2005 05:00 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Tazmanian93	Tue Oct 18 2005 05:08 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Convergence	Tue Oct 18 2005 05:05 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	The Force 2005	Tue Oct 18 2005 05:09 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	ftlaudbob	Tue Oct 18 2005 05:30 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Tue Oct 18 2005 05:35 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	ftlaudbob	Tue Oct 18 2005 05:41 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Tue Oct 18 2005 05:43 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	ftlaudbob	Tue Oct 18 2005 05:50 AM
teleconnected	HanKFranK	Tue Oct 18 2005 06:07 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	floridafamily	Tue Oct 18 2005 05:26 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Tazmanian93	Tue Oct 18 2005 05:34 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	DebbiePSL	Tue Oct 18 2005 04:56 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	ralphfl	Tue Oct 18 2005 04:29 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	DebbiePSL	Tue Oct 18 2005 04:37 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	ftlaudbob	Tue Oct 18 2005 04:41 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	ftlaudbob	Tue Oct 18 2005 04:37 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	ftlaudbob	Tue Oct 18 2005 04:29 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	DebbiePSL	Tue Oct 18 2005 04:18 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	cngodles	Tue Oct 18 2005 12:55 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Ron Basso	Tue Oct 18 2005 01:06 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	k___g	Tue Oct 18 2005 12:59 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Bloodstar	Mon Oct 17 2005 10:20 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Hugh	Mon Oct 17 2005 10:59 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	WeatherNut	Tue Oct 18 2005 12:44 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Tue Oct 18 2005 01:08 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Hugh	Tue Oct 18 2005 02:14 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Tue Oct 18 2005 01:14 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Tazmanian93	Tue Oct 18 2005 02:12 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Mon Oct 17 2005 11:57 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Hugh	Tue Oct 18 2005 12:05 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Tue Oct 18 2005 12:07 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	MadDog	Tue Oct 18 2005 12:01 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Hugh	Tue Oct 18 2005 12:16 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Tue Oct 18 2005 12:39 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	crpeavley	Tue Oct 18 2005 12:50 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Tue Oct 18 2005 01:07 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	k___g	Tue Oct 18 2005 01:25 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Tue Oct 18 2005 02:05 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Tazmanian93	Tue Oct 18 2005 01:53 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Ben Wallace	Tue Oct 18 2005 12:38 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	dave foster	Mon Oct 17 2005 11:22 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Hugh	Mon Oct 17 2005 11:37 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	dave foster	Tue Oct 18 2005 12:05 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Mon Oct 17 2005 10:50 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	sara33	Mon Oct 17 2005 10:57 PM
Re: Dry Air	Goosus	Mon Oct 17 2005 11:02 PM
Re: Dry Air	Hugh	Mon Oct 17 2005 11:07 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Mon Oct 17 2005 11:02 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	NewWatcher	Mon Oct 17 2005 11:00 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	sara33	Mon Oct 17 2005 11:09 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Jamiewx	Mon Oct 17 2005 11:18 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Beaumont, TX	Mon Oct 17 2005 02:36 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Steeler Fan	Mon Oct 17 2005 03:03 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	JMII	Mon Oct 17 2005 05:19 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Steeler Fan	Mon Oct 17 2005 05:46 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	emackl	Mon Oct 17 2005 03:13 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Tazmanian93	Mon Oct 17 2005 02:54 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	dave foster	Mon Oct 17 2005 12:31 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Wxwatcher2	Mon Oct 17 2005 12:46 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	sara33	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:27 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	dave foster	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:02 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	GuppieGrouper	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:16 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Lee-Delray	Mon Oct 17 2005 12:51 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Colleen A.	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:11 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Beaumont, TX	Mon Oct 17 2005 12:59 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	NewWatcher	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:20 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Colleen A.	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:30 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Tazmanian93	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:58 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Wingman51	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:46 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Tazmanian93	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:59 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Mon Oct 17 2005 02:14 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Steve H1	Mon Oct 17 2005 03:18 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Clark	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:55 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Big Kahuna	Mon Oct 17 2005 05:26 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	ralphfl	Mon Oct 17 2005 05:36 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	ralphfl	Mon Oct 17 2005 05:40 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	doug	Mon Oct 17 2005 06:10 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	JonB	Mon Oct 17 2005 06:04 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	emackl	Mon Oct 17 2005 06:14 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	ralphfl	Mon Oct 17 2005 06:10 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	NewWatcher	Mon Oct 17 2005 06:23 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Mon Oct 17 2005 06:33 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	WeatherNut	Mon Oct 17 2005 06:50 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Mon Oct 17 2005 07:16 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	gogogabby007	Mon Oct 17 2005 07:10 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	HURRICANELONNY	Mon Oct 17 2005 06:50 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Mon Oct 17 2005 03:30 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	doug	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:30 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Steve H1	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:32 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Mon Oct 17 2005 03:48 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Mon Oct 17 2005 03:53 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:09 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:56 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Steve H1	Mon Oct 17 2005 05:02 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Mon Oct 17 2005 05:38 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Clark	Mon Oct 17 2005 07:19 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Mon Oct 17 2005 08:17 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Lysis	Mon Oct 17 2005 08:21 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Mon Oct 17 2005 08:45 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	doug	Mon Oct 17 2005 08:32 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Colleen A.	Mon Oct 17 2005 08:52 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	dave foster	Mon Oct 17 2005 08:57 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Bloodstar	Mon Oct 17 2005 08:27 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Mon Oct 17 2005 08:31 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	doug	Mon Oct 17 2005 07:28 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	dave foster	Mon Oct 17 2005 08:09 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Gerryla	Mon Oct 17 2005 08:25 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Mon Oct 17 2005 05:24 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Mon Oct 17 2005 05:09 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Mon Oct 17 2005 05:10 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:24 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Thunderbird12	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:35 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Lake Toho - Kissimmee	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:44 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:52 PM
SE Drift? and 10N 50W?	Bloodstar	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:41 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	scottsvb	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:39 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	NewWatcher	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:27 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	doug	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:20 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Margie	Mon Oct 17 2005 02:49 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	ftlaudbob	Mon Oct 17 2005 01:29 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Margie	Mon Oct 17 2005 12:26 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Hugh	Mon Oct 17 2005 12:01 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Random Chaos	Mon Oct 17 2005 11:54 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	typhoon_tip	Mon Oct 17 2005 03:29 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	NewWatcher	Mon Oct 17 2005 04:06 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	Steve H1	Mon Oct 17 2005 12:05 PM
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean	NewWatcher	Mon Oct 17 2005 12:00 PM

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