Well.... this is interesting! The newest GFDL appears to have shifted back toward the western tip of Cuba, and the LBAR is even further east, calling for Wilma to cross near Havana (I think that's where Havana is), and then move across the peninsula south of Laka Okechobe(sp?). These models make the NHC forecast seem much more reasonable than the earlier runs did (which were all west of the NHC forecast)... but they also bring to light the fact that we just don't know this far out where Wilma is going to go.
Edit: I just saw others posting while I was typing the above. Random: The models were in very good agreement earlier, but now the latest runs seem to diverge again - or maybe they've just shifted back to the east and the models that are showing a Yucatan landfall have not been updated yet (I know these models are older runs than the current GFDL and LBAR, but don't know when they will be updated).
It could be yet another frustrating week along the central and eastern Gulf Coast.
Edit 2: WU has updated the GFS, which now calls for a turn to the north and eventually NNE, looks like the Big Bend or south of there longer-term.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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