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Tropical Storm Watch issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to W of Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas #RAFAEL #FLWX
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 25 (Milton) , Major: 25 (Milton) Florida - Any: 25 (Milton) Major: 25 (Milton)
Rem Patty
ADV#10 11:00 am EDT
38.5N 16.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 999mb
Moving:
Ene at 17 mph
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TS Rafael
ADV#5A 6:00 pm EDT
15.8N 76.9W
Wind: 45MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
Nnw at 9 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
      Mon Oct 17 2005 12:20 PM

Don't see any cases here over the last 36 hours that this system WILL NOT recurve...so if there is such a case I would like to hear that one...The first ridge will erode to the SW and then the replacement ridge, and weaker ridge will be moved east by the next trough which is pretty vigorous over the SW CONUS now..that will creat the weakness to the NE and recurvature...this is the prevailing understanding.
So If there is a case for the recurvature not occuring please let us know...

--------------------
doug

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean MikeCAdministrator Mon Oct 17 2005 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:43 PM
. * * Recon twizted sizter   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean weatherwatcher2   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ralphfl   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Random Chaos   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:48 AM
. * * 1 AM EDT danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:26 AM
. * * Recon Update danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:08 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update Multi-Decadal Signal   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:36 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update jlauderdal   Tue Oct 18 2005 07:19 AM
. * * Crossing Florida? danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:40 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? LadyStorm   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:44 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? NewWatcher   Tue Oct 18 2005 07:20 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? HURRICANELONNY   Tue Oct 18 2005 07:37 AM
. * * Cause of potential FL hit tpratch   Tue Oct 18 2005 07:34 AM
. * * Re: Cause of potential FL hit Ed G   Tue Oct 18 2005 07:47 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? charlottefl   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:32 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? dave foster   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:45 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? Hugh   Tue Oct 18 2005 06:29 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? Cindi   Tue Oct 18 2005 06:45 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? Steve H1   Tue Oct 18 2005 06:50 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? Margie   Tue Oct 18 2005 07:35 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean The Force 2005   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Convergence   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean The Force 2005   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:50 AM
. * * teleconnected HanKFranK   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean floridafamily   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:34 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:56 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ralphfl   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean cngodles   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Ron Basso   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean k___g   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Bloodstar   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean WeatherNut   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean MadDog   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean crpeavley   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean k___g   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Ben Wallace   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean sara33   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Dry Air Goosus   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Dry Air Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean sara33   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Jamiewx   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steeler Fan   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean JMII   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steeler Fan   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean emackl   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Wxwatcher2   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:46 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean sara33   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean GuppieGrouper   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Lee-Delray   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Colleen A.   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Colleen A.   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Wingman51   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:46 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steve H1   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Clark   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Big Kahuna   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ralphfl   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ralphfl   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean JonB   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean emackl   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ralphfl   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean WeatherNut   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean gogogabby007   Mon Oct 17 2005 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean HURRICANELONNY   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steve H1   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steve H1   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Clark   Mon Oct 17 2005 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Lysis   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Colleen A.   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Bloodstar   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 17 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Gerryla   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:52 PM
. * * SE Drift? and 10N 50W? Bloodstar   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Margie   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Margie   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Random Chaos   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steve H1   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:00 AM

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