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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

typhoon_tip
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
      Mon Oct 17 2005 04:17 PM

Quote:

You'd almost expect the coldest tops in IR (the cirrus debris you mention) to move in an anticyclonic fashion, being up near the outflow layer and all with a ridge of high pressure aloft above the storm. That's nothing unexpected or detrimental to the storm. There are some nice low-level outflow boundaries on the north & northeast sides of the storm right now, evidenced on visible imagery, with some gravity waves in the midst of the convection removed to the NE of the storm. Pretty cool to see on vis, even if they are a little hard to pick out from time to time.

Do expect that the center is reforming a bit further south & southeast right now, continuing a trend I've been watching the past few hours on satellite imagery. The warm area developing on IR imagery is just south of where I'd place the center; what appears to be some mid-level dry air is becoming entrained on the west & side quadrants of the storm, somewhat separating the large mass of convection (feeder band) to the south from the main core of the system. Impacts on intensity in the short-term? To be determined...need recon down there to tell us where it's at now strength-wise.




Right; I too do not really see where the anticyclonic curl, whether centered in situ Wilma or not, would really serve as detriment.. But it is odd...perhaps a little to see skewness..

I do however see that as a fascinating behavior nonetheless.. I'm also interested in the asymetry of this as a whole. Folks on here have given mention to shearing in the environment but I don't find or see a source based on either my own interprative analysis of available sat, nor based on anything mentioned from HPC. It seems to be this is entirely perturbationally driven by nuances involved with the convection it's self.; maybe dry air involvement as well.

I also took note of the dry air entrainment issue as you say; in fact, there is a large envelopment of dry air that is pretty much butted up against Wilma's general arena of genisis - NW. It will be interesting to see how well she fends this off... As she deepens, she'll be more able to incorporate these drier values by extending her pgf outward, and I suggest that is why you see these initial incursion that you mentioned. Her presentation during the afternoon has overall improved; likely portending a deeper surface pressure and greater ingest pulling in the dry air in question... (5pm may confirm this) This could be a problem for rapid intensification enthusiasts, that she gulps dry air in intervals - but then again, HPC likes the SHIPs compromise over the dreaded GFDL anyway. Of course, passed behavior has demonstrated that sometime dry air on the perimeters fools everyone by becoming less an issue with intensity- a.k.a. Rita. ...Though didn't she subcumb a little bit... She did seem to max out prior to bumping into dry air over the western Gulf - haven't read any follow-up steady on her intensity curve...

Anywho...awesome to see those details in the vis. This has been a great day for observing g-wave phenom, as well as the the outflow, surface and aloft, as well as differentiating cloud structures.... totally cool!

I also agree with the center jump hypothesis.. I mentioned this earlier this morning I believed; the concern at the time being that with such limited convection in the N sector (pretty much as a whole) the circulation field would almost have to repond to where the persistent ascending air was distributed... No trouble believing that, being that it is consistent with understanding.

Lastly...tough to say for sure but I'm suspecting that the diurnal min is about at its vertex for the day.. I'm wondering if the last 3 hours denegration of activity is related to that?

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* Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean MikeCAdministrator Mon Oct 17 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:15 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:43 PM
. * * Recon twizted sizter   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean weatherwatcher2   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ralphfl   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Random Chaos   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:21 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:48 AM
. * * 1 AM EDT danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:26 AM
. * * Recon Update danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:36 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:08 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:11 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update Multi-Decadal Signal   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:36 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update jlauderdal   Tue Oct 18 2005 07:19 AM
. * * Crossing Florida? danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:40 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:55 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? LadyStorm   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:44 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? NewWatcher   Tue Oct 18 2005 07:20 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? HURRICANELONNY   Tue Oct 18 2005 07:37 AM
. * * Cause of potential FL hit tpratch   Tue Oct 18 2005 07:34 AM
. * * Re: Cause of potential FL hit Ed G   Tue Oct 18 2005 07:47 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? charlottefl   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:32 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? dave foster   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:45 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? Hugh   Tue Oct 18 2005 06:29 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? Cindi   Tue Oct 18 2005 06:45 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? Steve H1   Tue Oct 18 2005 06:50 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? Margie   Tue Oct 18 2005 07:35 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean The Force 2005   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Convergence   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean The Force 2005   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:09 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:35 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:50 AM
. * * teleconnected HanKFranK   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean floridafamily   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:34 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:56 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ralphfl   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean cngodles   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Ron Basso   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean k___g   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Bloodstar   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean WeatherNut   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean MadDog   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean crpeavley   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean k___g   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Ben Wallace   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean sara33   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:57 PM
. * * Re: Dry Air Goosus   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Dry Air Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean sara33   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Jamiewx   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steeler Fan   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean JMII   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steeler Fan   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean emackl   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Wxwatcher2   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:46 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean sara33   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:27 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean GuppieGrouper   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Lee-Delray   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:51 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Colleen A.   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:11 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Colleen A.   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Wingman51   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:46 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:14 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steve H1   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Clark   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Big Kahuna   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ralphfl   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ralphfl   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean JonB   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean emackl   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ralphfl   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean WeatherNut   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 03:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean gogogabby007   Mon Oct 17 2005 03:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean HURRICANELONNY   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steve H1   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steve H1   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Clark   Mon Oct 17 2005 03:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Lysis   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Colleen A.   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Bloodstar   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 17 2005 03:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Gerryla   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:52 PM
. * * SE Drift? and 10N 50W? Bloodstar   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Margie   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Mon Oct 17 2005 09:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Margie   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Random Chaos   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steve H1   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:00 AM

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