If and as the storm makes it's predicted turn north, won't it run straight into this dry air mass? Won't that choke further intensification? I can't imagine a hurricane, no matter how strong, can plunge into a dry area of ocean and keep it's intensity, let alone strengthen. Any thoughts? Is this entire mass of dry air supposed to be gone in a few days?
If Wilma turns northward (which is still not certain) it will be in response to a trough of low pressure coming down from the plains into the Gulf... that trough won't have dry air in it, but it will have shear, so the net effect will be to retard development in the eastern GOM, which is what is forecast.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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