Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995

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At least the pressure has not plummeted - yet anyway. Looking at the latest IR loop, it's not moving east of due south anymore, either. In fact, it actually looks like it's moving DUE WEST now...just as forecast
. In fact, the developing eye (which you can't see on IR) appears midway between the 5pm ET position and the first forecast track position.

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What's interesting here is that her pressure was 989mb at the 5pm, considerably large drop for day period... They do mention that the environmental pressure is considerably lower than normal, but when the recon says ragged eyewall, almost makes one wonder if the recon did not sample the best part of the circulation... In other words, missed the wind maxim?

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Possible. The 8pm intermediate advisory maintained the pressure as 989 (estimated!) and the winds as 50mph, though. Perhaps the airplane never measured the wind maxim, or perhaps the winds have still not caught up to the pressure. The net movement from 5pm to 8pm was also due south according to the advisories (Current movement is called stationary), which makes no sense looking at the IR loop which shows due west movement, however. Maybe the LLC is not moving but the CDO is moving, which means it is reorganizing internally? Or maybe I'm blind and don't know west from south.

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Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)

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