Right now it just matters on how much shear is in for Wilma once it gets into the gulf,, the shear that will push from W-E will drive her NE or even ENE..... I will say 1 thing, she will pick up speed prior to landfall but when is landfall is the best question cause shes not moving much yet,,,right now it looks like Sunday morning but could be as early as Saturday morning if she begins to move NW on Tuesday. All in all its the development of the system over the plains during the mid week period and how fast the Jet stream pushes this east to pick up Wilma and drive her NE. Intensity should bring her up to near a Cat 4 by Thurs Night but then weaken some due to shear and also slightly cooler waters (although still 81-83dg) later Friday into Saturday. Landfall in Florida could be from a strong cat 1 to a weak ( although how can anyone really say weak) Cat 3. Now even though that water temp still supports a Hurricane, its less then the ocean heat content of the NW carribean near 84-87dg still. Anyways Im inline pretty much still with the Nogaps and GFDL 18z run but more then 3 days out is speculation of course.
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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