Quote: I posted it 10 min ago and hugh got it just before me.
Discussion not out yet that I can find, I'm waiting to read it and then going to bed. I'm curious as to what they say, but I suspect it will be status quo, actually.
Edit: Well, the discussion is out now. Interesting tidbit: As is often the case... however... the models greatly disagree on how sharply Wilma will turn and how fast it will move after recurvature. Most of the models are now much faster after recurvature... but the new official forecast will only be adjusted part of the way between the previous advisory and the latest dynamical model consensus. Conditions appear conducive for steady strengthening while Wilma remains in the northwestern Caribbean Sea... and it still appears probable that Wilma will become a major hurricane. Thereafter... increasing shear should halt intensification and begin to induce gradual weakening... but not enough to weaken Wilma beneath hurricane intensity within the five-day time frame.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean
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