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First day of the Atlantic Hurricane season, no tropical activity on the horizon in the near term. Mid August is usually when things pick up.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 284 (Idalia) , Major: 284 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 284 (Idalia) Major: 284 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
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Loc: Graniteville, SC
teleconnected
      Tue Oct 18 2005 06:07 AM

well, the pattern is one of NAO negative and SOI stuck positive.. so it's zonal ridging with a progressive mid-latitude pattern but blocking to the north. the tendency for low pressure over the east should effectively shunt wilma out into the atlantic after it crosses florida (which is the most likely possibility right now... it'll have to start moving northeast at a pretty low latitude to miss, and there's significant ridging moving in place for the short term). the models were all going west earlier.. now they're trained back across florida. none are showing wilma phasing into the westerly flow and zipping up the coast. unless that solution reappears, then the best bet is that it will arc eastward as it moves north and pass well off the east coast. a lot of the model guidance has shifted southward across florida with the more dramatic recurvature. i'd say it'll probably stabilize back to the north... with the way typhoon kirogi is curving past japan after being stuck to the south for days.. the teleconnection would be for a hurricane to zip across florida about 6-7 days later (at least that's what the rough average is by the winter longwave pattern.. not quite there yet). kirogi is 'past', so the cross-florida track would be roughly centered on october 22nd-23rd. kirogi intensified quite a bit sunday, which wasn't entirely expected... better hope wilma doesn't mimic the behavior as it bears down on the west coast of florida. ssts in the southeastern gulf aren't quite what they were in august, so i wouldn't expect quite the behavior. i'd guess that the storm's intensity will run somewhere between what michelle in 2001 and lili in 1996 had as they impacted cuba--more likely closer to lili. it'll probably be a substantial hurricane, nonetheless. target window is still cedar key to key west, with a special emphasis on the sarasota to naples swath.
elsewhere in the basin not much doing. there's a surface swirl near 23/41.. remnant of that invest from a few days ago. it has flashed the odd thunderstorm today, but is more of a remnant-type low than anything. pretty stable environment, but shear conditons are passable, so if it flares up again it'll have a chance at being a tropical cyclone.
gfs indicated pattern in the long range shows the potential for additional pattern-pulse type development in the caribbean. nothing to latch onto yet as it probably doesn't have wilma's exit strategy figured out yet. if there are greek alphabet systems in the offing, then none are exciting too much model interest.
HF 0606z18october

Edited by HanKFranK (Tue Oct 18 2005 06:22 AM)

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* Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean MikeCAdministrator Tue Oct 18 2005 06:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:19 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:24 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:36 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:43 AM
. * * Recon twizted sizter   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:46 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean weatherwatcher2   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:57 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Tue Oct 18 2005 03:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 03:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ralphfl   Tue Oct 18 2005 03:40 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Random Chaos   Tue Oct 18 2005 03:47 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 04:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 04:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 04:21 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 04:48 AM
. * * 1 AM EDT danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:26 AM
. * * Recon Update danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:36 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 06:08 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 06:11 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 18 2005 06:16 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 18 2005 06:20 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update Multi-Decadal Signal   Tue Oct 18 2005 06:36 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update jlauderdal   Tue Oct 18 2005 11:19 AM
. * * Crossing Florida? danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 06:40 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? danielwAdministrator   Tue Oct 18 2005 06:55 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? LadyStorm   Tue Oct 18 2005 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? NewWatcher   Tue Oct 18 2005 11:20 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? HURRICANELONNY   Tue Oct 18 2005 11:37 AM
. * * Cause of potential FL hit tpratch   Tue Oct 18 2005 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Cause of potential FL hit Ed G   Tue Oct 18 2005 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? charlottefl   Tue Oct 18 2005 09:32 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? dave foster   Tue Oct 18 2005 09:45 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? Hugh   Tue Oct 18 2005 10:29 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? Cindi   Tue Oct 18 2005 10:45 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? Steve H1   Tue Oct 18 2005 10:50 AM
. * * Re: Crossing Florida? Margie   Tue Oct 18 2005 11:35 AM
. * * Re: Recon Update Storm Hunter   Tue Oct 18 2005 06:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean The Force 2005   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Convergence   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean The Force 2005   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:09 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:30 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:35 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:43 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:50 AM
. * * teleconnected HanKFranK   Tue Oct 18 2005 06:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean floridafamily   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:26 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Tue Oct 18 2005 05:34 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 04:56 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ralphfl   Tue Oct 18 2005 04:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 04:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 04:41 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 04:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Tue Oct 18 2005 04:29 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean DebbiePSL   Tue Oct 18 2005 04:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean cngodles   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Ron Basso   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean k___g   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:59 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Bloodstar   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean WeatherNut   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:44 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:14 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:12 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean MadDog   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:16 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean crpeavley   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:07 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean k___g   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:25 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Tue Oct 18 2005 02:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Tue Oct 18 2005 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Ben Wallace   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:38 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:37 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Tue Oct 18 2005 12:05 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean sara33   Mon Oct 17 2005 10:57 PM
. * * Re: Dry Air Goosus   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Dry Air Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:07 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean sara33   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Jamiewx   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steeler Fan   Mon Oct 17 2005 03:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean JMII   Mon Oct 17 2005 05:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steeler Fan   Mon Oct 17 2005 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean emackl   Mon Oct 17 2005 03:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:54 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Wxwatcher2   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean sara33   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean GuppieGrouper   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Lee-Delray   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Colleen A.   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Beaumont, TX   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Colleen A.   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Wingman51   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Tazmanian93   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:59 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steve H1   Mon Oct 17 2005 03:18 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Clark   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Big Kahuna   Mon Oct 17 2005 05:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ralphfl   Mon Oct 17 2005 05:36 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ralphfl   Mon Oct 17 2005 05:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean JonB   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:04 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean emackl   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:14 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ralphfl   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean WeatherNut   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean gogogabby007   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean HURRICANELONNY   Mon Oct 17 2005 06:50 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 03:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steve H1   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Oct 17 2005 03:48 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 03:53 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steve H1   Mon Oct 17 2005 05:02 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 05:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Clark   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:19 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Lysis   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:45 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:32 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Colleen A.   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:52 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Bloodstar   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 17 2005 07:28 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean dave foster   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Gerryla   Mon Oct 17 2005 08:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 05:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 05:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 05:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Thunderbird12   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:35 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Lake Toho - Kissimmee   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:52 PM
. * * SE Drift? and 10N 50W? Bloodstar   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean scottsvb   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:39 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean doug   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Margie   Mon Oct 17 2005 02:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean ftlaudbob   Mon Oct 17 2005 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Margie   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:26 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Hugh   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Random Chaos   Mon Oct 17 2005 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean typhoon_tip   Mon Oct 17 2005 03:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean Steve H1   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Wilma Forms in the Western Caribbean NewWatcher   Mon Oct 17 2005 12:00 PM

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