Good morning, all. I see the track has shifted back east. I'm beginning to get a feeling about Wilma. She's a high-maintenance girl.
Finally the NHC 5am disc acknowledged that the high over the GOM is still not going anywhere, despite the forecast; and then what does it do, but immediately start to move the last couple of hours, LOL, with corresponding movement from Wilma. None of the data on the Navy site seems to be very current so I can't find any scans to look at the banding under the convection, and it is a little hard for me to get a handle on where her center is, but since they mentioned the convection is more symmetric, it appears she may be a little N of the track points (which, btw, look like shades of Camille; thank goodness it isn't August and there's hardly any likelyhood of a northern track once rounded Cuba).
Now I think it is possible that Wilma is going to go higher than a Cat 3 in the Caribbean. This newest track is over some of the warmest deep waters that are left. However, NHC doesn't forecast this, and they know a lot more than I do, so we'll see, but I did see the word "intense" hurricane so I think that it's possible they're laying the ground for ramping up the intensity forecast, since they have a limited set of hurricane adjectives, at the NHC, and use them sparingly. Notice how the stupid frenzy over global warming, and short collective memory, has them throwing this kind of thing into the discussion:
"WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBEAN SEA...TYPICAL OF THOSE HURRICANES WHICH COMMONLY OCCURRED IN OCTOBER DURING THE 30'S 40'S AND 50'S. THIS IS NOTHING NEW."
And what they say is true. I remember my parents and grandparents talking about Hazel (well, she didn't form in the same place, but there were a lot of major hurricanes in the 40s and 50s, esp along the ATL coastline).
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