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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Lili Weakens a Bit Heading for Central Louisiana
      Thu Oct 03 2002 05:29 AM

11AM update

Lili has made landfall as a category two storm, after being a strong category four yesterday. This is incredibly interesting, and plenty of studys I'm sure will go into what happened here with Lili. It's also very lucky that it didn't make landfall as a stronger system. God has blessed the folks in Louisiana for the most part. There is damage, no doubt, but not as bad as it could have been.

Hype yesterday was intense, for good reason, it was a big storm, and every inch of movement was being analyzed and even the slightest hint of trouble was extrapolated. Nail biting moments I'm sure for emergency management and folks in weather and at the Hurricane Center.

As for why it weakened suddenly, I am not so sure . It could have been the shear, the water temps, the elongation, or a combination of all the above, perchance sprinkled with a miracle as well. All the best to our friends in Lousiana! You have dodged yet another bullet in two weeks time. I hope the damage that did occur was minimal. Some areas, I'm sure, will have a lot to clean up.


Currently Lili is moving inland, and has dropped to category 1 status, causing some wind damage and rain. It is still moving very rapidly. Hopefully quickly away so cleanup can commence.

Kyle is still around. Say hello!

Original Update


Good morning, some good news to pass along.

Hurricane Lili has experienced a little shear overnight and has been downgraded to a category 3, and is moving west away from the New Orleans area which a few people voiced concerns over last night. However, it still is a major storm and is heading to the Central Louisiana coast.

The eye became ragged and open on the south overnight as the storm got elongated north and south. As it makes landfall today it will still give a farily large storm surge and come with wind damage. As for intensity we'll have to watch it hour by hour.

More to come during the day.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Lili Weakens a Bit Heading for Central Louisiana MikeCAdministrator Thu Oct 03 2002 05:29 AM
. * * Kyle is coming Cool Breeze   Wed Oct 09 2002 12:16 AM
. * * Kyle & Bucs... Steveunplugged   Wed Oct 09 2002 02:03 AM
. * * Kyle Dan   Tue Oct 08 2002 08:00 PM
. * * How Long Will Kyle be Around?...........If You Checked Out..... Steve H.   Fri Oct 04 2002 11:41 PM
. * * kyle still there Anonymous (HF)   Sat Oct 05 2002 01:05 AM
. * * CONVECTION FLARE UP WXMAN RICHIE   Sat Oct 05 2002 06:22 AM
. * * Re: CONVECTION FLARE UP troy2   Sat Oct 05 2002 09:58 AM
. * * Re: CONVECTION FLARE UP recmod   Sat Oct 05 2002 10:21 AM
. * * Re: CONVECTION FLARE UP 57497479   Sat Oct 05 2002 10:18 AM
. * * Re: CONVECTION FLARE UP Kevin   Sat Oct 05 2002 10:40 AM
. * * Re: CONVECTION FLARE UP 57497479   Sat Oct 05 2002 11:26 AM
. * * What's the official count as of now? TheSaints   Sat Oct 05 2002 01:04 PM
. * * Re: What's the official count as of now? 57497479   Sat Oct 05 2002 01:17 PM
. * * Re: What's the official count as of now? Steveunplugged   Sat Oct 05 2002 02:53 PM
. * * Re: What's the official count as of now? 57497479   Sat Oct 05 2002 03:59 PM
. * * Radar Bill   Sat Oct 05 2002 04:08 PM
. * * Re: Radar 57497479   Sat Oct 05 2002 04:30 PM
. * * Re: Radar Frank P   Sat Oct 05 2002 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Radar PewterPirates   Sun Oct 06 2002 05:18 PM
. * * Re: Radar 57497479   Sun Oct 06 2002 08:41 PM
. * * How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs? Steveunplugged   Sun Oct 06 2002 09:04 PM
. * * Re: How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs? 57497479   Sun Oct 06 2002 09:36 PM
. * * Re: How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs? joepub1   Sun Oct 06 2002 09:50 PM
. * * Re: How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs? 57497479   Sun Oct 06 2002 10:12 PM
. * * Re: How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs? joepub1   Sun Oct 06 2002 10:20 PM
. * * Re: How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs? 57497479   Sun Oct 06 2002 10:33 PM
. * * Re: How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs? joepub1   Sun Oct 06 2002 11:08 PM
. * * Re: How bout those SECOND PLACE Bucs? 57497479   Sun Oct 06 2002 11:50 PM
. * * KYLE WXMAN RICHIE   Mon Oct 07 2002 04:44 AM
. * * Re: KYLE 57497479   Mon Oct 07 2002 06:40 AM
. * * Re: KYLE Jax Chris   Mon Oct 07 2002 08:09 AM
. * * Re: KYLE HanKFranK   Mon Oct 07 2002 11:02 PM
. * * Re: KYLE recmod   Mon Oct 07 2002 11:13 PM
. * * Re: KYLE joepub1   Mon Oct 07 2002 11:42 PM
. * * Re: KYLE 57497479   Tue Oct 08 2002 06:47 AM
. * * Re: KYLE Mary K.   Tue Oct 08 2002 07:28 AM
. * * Re: KYLE Steve H.   Tue Oct 08 2002 07:46 AM
. * * Will Kyle Live to Gte Under the Ridge?? Steve H.   Tue Oct 08 2002 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge?? joepub1   Tue Oct 08 2002 01:08 PM
. * * Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge?? 57497479   Tue Oct 08 2002 08:12 PM
. * * Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge?? joepub1   Tue Oct 08 2002 09:48 PM
. * * Re:Kyle Will Live And Get Under the Ridge?? Robert   Tue Oct 08 2002 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge?? 57497479   Tue Oct 08 2002 10:14 PM
. * * Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge?? joepub1   Tue Oct 08 2002 10:42 PM
. * * Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge?? 57497479   Tue Oct 08 2002 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Will Kyle Live to Get Under the Ridge?? 57497479   Tue Oct 08 2002 11:20 PM
. * * kyle checking out? HanKFranK   Tue Oct 08 2002 11:56 PM
. * * Re: kyle checking out? 57497479   Wed Oct 09 2002 12:14 AM
. * * Bulletin from Collier County Bill   Tue Oct 08 2002 02:00 PM
. * * Re: Bulletin from Collier County joepub1   Tue Oct 08 2002 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Bulletin from Collier County Ricreig   Tue Oct 08 2002 02:42 PM
. * * time for a downgrade HanKFranK   Tue Oct 08 2002 03:05 PM
. * * SHOWER KYLE WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Oct 09 2002 05:31 AM
. * * Re: SHOWER KYLE Mary K.   Wed Oct 09 2002 09:14 AM
. * * Re: SHOWER KYLE Floridacane   Wed Oct 09 2002 09:54 AM
. * * Re: time for a downgrade Ricreig   Tue Oct 08 2002 04:56 PM
. * * Re: time for a downgrade Steve H.   Tue Oct 08 2002 03:24 PM
. * * 5PM Update WXMAN RICHIE   Tue Oct 08 2002 04:38 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update Marktropical   Tue Oct 08 2002 05:11 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update Kevin   Tue Oct 08 2002 05:22 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update Steve H.   Tue Oct 08 2002 08:04 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update 57497479   Tue Oct 08 2002 08:37 PM
. * * Re: 5PM Update ROB H   Tue Oct 08 2002 09:42 PM
. * * Re: KYLE VolusiaMike   Tue Oct 08 2002 06:46 AM
. * * Re: KYLE 57497479   Mon Oct 07 2002 11:32 PM
. * * Re: KYLE Mary K.   Mon Oct 07 2002 07:43 AM
. * * RAIN Bruce   Sun Oct 06 2002 08:55 AM
. * * TS Kyle Bruce   Sun Oct 06 2002 11:29 AM
. * * AVN & Canadian Models... UnpluggedSteve   Sun Oct 06 2002 12:32 PM
. * * Re: CONVECTION FLARE UP Steve H.   Sat Oct 05 2002 10:16 AM
. * * flooding in Terrebonne cappycat   Thu Oct 03 2002 03:00 PM
. * * Rest of the season Bill   Fri Oct 04 2002 02:51 PM
. * * Re: flooding in Terrebonne anon   Thu Oct 03 2002 04:47 PM
. * * Re: flooding in Terrebonne andy1tom   Thu Oct 03 2002 03:49 PM
. * * Re: Lili Weakens a Bit Heading for Central Louisiana cappycat   Thu Oct 03 2002 09:46 AM
. * * 4:35 CDT... Steve   Thu Oct 03 2002 05:58 AM
. * * Re: 4:35 CDT... joepub1   Thu Oct 03 2002 06:55 AM
. * * Re: 4:35 CDT... joepub1   Thu Oct 03 2002 07:04 AM
. * * Re: 4:35 CDT... joepub1   Thu Oct 03 2002 06:35 AM
. * * Everything's cool... Steve   Thu Oct 03 2002 06:47 AM
. * * Re: Everything's cool... clyde w.   Thu Oct 03 2002 10:05 AM
. * * 9:15am... Steve   Thu Oct 03 2002 10:19 AM
. * * Re: 9:15am... Frank P   Thu Oct 03 2002 10:34 AM
. * * Louisiana 1927 BabyCat   Thu Oct 03 2002 10:43 AM
. * * Power of Prayer Bill   Thu Oct 03 2002 11:14 AM
. * * Re: Power of Prayer hmmm   Thu Oct 03 2002 11:47 AM
. * * LOL Brett   Thu Oct 03 2002 11:50 AM
. * * Re: LOL Mary K.   Thu Oct 03 2002 12:05 PM
. * * Re: LOL BillD   Thu Oct 03 2002 09:57 PM
. * * Perspective Bill   Fri Oct 04 2002 02:28 PM
. * * Well Brett   Fri Oct 04 2002 03:53 PM
. * * Re: LOL FlaRebel   Thu Oct 03 2002 12:11 PM
. * * Re: LOL BabyCat   Thu Oct 03 2002 01:39 PM
. * * Re: Power of Prayer FlaRebel   Thu Oct 03 2002 11:35 AM
. * * Its a good thought... Brett   Thu Oct 03 2002 11:47 AM
. * * Re: Power of Prayer craig   Thu Oct 03 2002 11:43 AM
. * * lili shows sympathy HanKFranK   Thu Oct 03 2002 10:15 AM
. * * Re: lili shows sympathy chevyman   Thu Oct 03 2002 03:46 PM
. * * Re: lili shows sympathy Kimmie at home   Thu Oct 03 2002 05:25 PM
. * * Re: lili shows sympathy joepub1   Thu Oct 03 2002 06:11 PM
. * * Re: lili shows sympathy Kevin   Thu Oct 03 2002 07:32 PM
. * * Re: lili shows sympathy VolusiaMike   Fri Oct 04 2002 10:45 AM
. * * Re: lili shows sympathy Steve H.   Fri Oct 04 2002 02:13 PM
. * * Everything's winding down... Steve   Thu Oct 03 2002 07:55 PM
. * * Thanks Steve.. water temps prooves a point LoisCane   Thu Oct 03 2002 10:14 PM
. * * 2002 Hurricane season, ect Bruce   Fri Oct 04 2002 07:29 AM
. * * Re: looking back and looking ahead cooltiger   Fri Oct 04 2002 09:33 AM
. * * Re: looking back and looking ahead Steve H.   Fri Oct 04 2002 10:26 AM
. * * October/November cooltiger   Fri Oct 04 2002 10:49 AM
. * * Some Louisiana Humor... Frank P   Fri Oct 04 2002 09:19 AM
. * * pretty good, but..... wannaBfrankP   Fri Oct 04 2002 03:32 PM
. * * Hey WannabFrankP Frank P   Fri Oct 04 2002 04:04 PM
. * * Re: Some Louisiana Humor... Bill   Fri Oct 04 2002 02:35 PM
. * * Just for fun... Spawn of Lili   Fri Oct 04 2002 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Some Louisiana Humor... Anonymous   Fri Oct 04 2002 12:36 PM
. * * Re: Some Louisiana Humor... BabyCat   Fri Oct 04 2002 01:58 PM
. * * Re: Everything's winding down... joepub1   Thu Oct 03 2002 08:44 PM
. * * Re: Everything's cool... cappycat   Thu Oct 03 2002 09:52 AM
. * * Re: Everything's cool... JustMe   Thu Oct 03 2002 08:23 AM
. * * Re: Everything's cool... BabyCat   Thu Oct 03 2002 08:39 AM
. * * LANDFALL Richard   Thu Oct 03 2002 08:48 AM

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