Quote:
The latest recon:
000
URNT12 KNHC 191822
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/18:06:20Z
B. 17 deg 24 min N
083 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2149 m
D. 75 kt
E. 29 deg 008 nm
F. 111 deg 128 kt
G. 023 deg 002 nm
H. EXTRAP 894 mb
I. 12 C/ 3058 m
J. 20 C/ 3028 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 0824A WILMA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 128 KT N QUAD 18:05:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
894mb pressure, that sounds about right, but 75kt surface winds? What?
"The GFDL model may need to be tossed this run", perhaps, but it is interesting to see this whobbling pretty smartly west this afternoon. I will give the admin this much, that much continuity change is usually laughable so I'm about 60% still in favor of the earlier runs.. I just don't like the nearer term movement...hmm
(much of the following copied from recent thread..)
...Fluctuations will inevitably occur and be most likely brought about by perturbational affects of her own doing; convection processes balanced against undetermined ERC's.... - nothing new there... but all of which there is virtually no predictive skill for timing; let alone subsequent affects on her intensity...
...We notice that her structure, while remaining essentially the same, is not associated with the extreme cold cloud tops that were almost off the scale overnight. The above recon is not surprising.
...This morning I took note of what appeared to be a small amount of dry air knifing into her wester circulation area. (Not sure if this has already been covered this morning so apologies for any redundances - actually, we're probably all repeating ourselves to some degree by now...) Anyway, more of this is actually probably having to do with the diurnal cycle, which is negative during the day (although usually more so toward the later afternoon, which is why I suggest some dry air may have been gulped into the circulation - perhaps masked by the cirrus shield...which by the way is fanstastically large!
...Anyway, for intensity enthusiasts, we were at or near a theoretical limitation for heat content, u/a mechanics and surrounding prospective inhibitors, anyway. NHC mentions or at least hints this overnight or this morning... . What that means is that it is more likely that fluctuations will be weaker rather than stronger.
...This reminds me...it will be interesting to see how she behaves as she moves from an area of lower than normal environmental pressure, toward and area of more normal.. If she maintains her core pressure while she goes, the wind will have to compensate... The trick is, the water is slightly cooler along her predicted track between the Yucatan Penisula and Florida, so she probably will not have the convection to maintain such low pressure.. It will be interesting to see how this aspect evolves.
...There are a lot of dimensions to this.. .For one, the amount of geography altimately affected by Wilma in the U.S. could be staggering... If these left course continue to materialize and ultimately verfiy as she's climbing in latitude, we could have substantial marine impacts from Florida's East Coast all the way to Bar Harbor in Maine. If not impacted by wind, surf "might" be an issue... And, should Wilma slam into Buzzard's Bay in Massachusetts like the 06z GFS and the NOGAPS are indicating, we are likely going to have a 1938-like scenario of funneling storm surge... The other thing about this: The accelerated movement and current path notion of these models is such that brings her along the length of the Gulf Stream after leaving Florida, then turning her N near about 37 latitude by about 73w (appr). This is disconcerting to say the least... Basically, she's moving quickly across Florida as a cat 3 (if they are lucky..), but so quickly that she may not have a lot of time to exhaust momentum over the relatively flat land area of the Florida Peninsula... Then, she's zipping up the East Coastal waters at some 35-45mph along the length of the Gulf Stream... May not be enough to "strengthen" but could just be a maintenance course.. Then, she does have to traverse the N wall of the Gulf stream and colder water that lurks for about 3 degrees of latitude S of Long Island, but at a very fast forward speed (which is climatologically both favored and necessary given the synoptics of 4 days from now) she will likely have limited time to weaken before crossing that inhibition.....
...Could make some history in New England should that verify; which is augmented by the fact that we would have uniquely enhanced meso-scale aspect associated with lift just west of inevitable coastal boundary, over an area that CAN NOT TAKE any more rain. Also, with saturated ground and an unusually late foliage season that I can personally vouch for in the area of Eastern New England, the timbre cost could be large....
...But, in the end, I think it important to take this one step at a time and the Floridians diserve all our attention for now.. Good luck!
I figure I ought to add to this before the qauntlet drops... this was all predicated on the assumption that the mroe threatening guidance is correct! it is note worthy that the 12z guidance has backed off on intensity from the two models in question; and it has already been noted by another member that the ECM was not as threatening to latter interests in the 00z run. Frankly, i find it a little dubious of the 12z GFS to take it into the ne coast of the Yucatan.. we must remember, the models have a bit of a memory too... they'd logged a lot of Yuc interaction and then a smartly out to sea solution for days...then, one sampling and it looked a lot different...It may just be that we are seeing another oscillation in the models based on momentum from previous runs.[\i]
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