Wilma Continued - FLHurricane.com

This run is actually more dangerous for New England than even the 06z GFS was... Wilma is not traversing that much of the land mass of Florida before gradually curving more N with latitude, and accelerating something fierce.. This solution suggests that she will be a formidable player even up in the NE U.S. Coast line.

The synoptic reasoning never really changed, which in earlier post I was attempting to elucidate much of that, and how that fact made the 12z GFDL run dubious. Doesn't mean it won't happen like the 12z run has it...just that it's extreme discontinuity didn't sit well, a) and b), actually was somewhat of an incongruity with governing players..

I've heard those stating that the lead impulse currently tumbling out of the Rockies would not be sufficient in initiating a NW/N pull to get the ball rolling... That may be the case, but this could still transpire along the previous track philosophy without that... Reason being, the NAO is currently in a negative phase and the trough amplification in the Ohio Valley invariably will end up deeper with teleconnections like this in play.. In English, statistically correlated behavior for a height wall over Davis Straight and Greenland is usually counter-balanced down near 40N by 80W, by and equal anomaly in the negative direction... In addition, confluence is migrating/evolving in the middle troposphere by 3 days from now, the axis of which is oriented wnw-ese from N of Maine. This makes it hard to imagine the lead impulse escaping too quickly, and in fact, there does seem plausibility that this lead impulse will be phased with the more import impulse coming down the pike in about 84 hours. This where the plot really thickens and also makes the GFDL 06z and 18z more believable... The trouble is, I just want to be certain that the data integrity in these runs were clean - Clark seemed to suggest that it was earlier (confirm?).

In addition, ridges out in the Atlantic are often not correctly anticipated in the models because that is a data sparse region... This ridge could effectively behave like a wall in preventing a weakening Wilma to carve through.. If that were not enough... Alot of this is actually going to come down to the degree of the amplification of the ridge over the Rocky Cordillera.. It's axis is actually ideal for what presages Nor'easters ....very interesting... a) but also b), if it is more responsive to the large negative anom in the Gulf of Alaska, the down wind result would be a deeper meridianal expression of the main Ohio Valley trough amplification. Anyway, the ridge in the Atlantic and the ridge amplification in the Intermountain West are two important players in the large scope, the degree of which will have an influence here in the ultimate track of Wilma.

As for Floridians... I still suggest all system are go for bringing preparations to completion. We aren't in hurry up mode just yet, but a concerted effort nonetheless...

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