Wilma a Category 4 Hurricane Moving West Northwest

11 PM Advisory is what I expected intensity-wise - however Wilma is not weakening as much as I expected. Winds are at 155MPH with the pressure at 894mb... This would make her an extremely strong Cat 4, but I can bet that those wind speeds are conservative, because with that pressure being so low they could be well over category 5 strength.

Looking at the latest computer model runs and water vapor images, it appears that Wilma is beginning to incorporate some northerly component in her movements. It hasn't made any significant turn, but it has began to jog a little more to the northwest. The general motion of the storm still remains west-northwest, but I believe over the next 6-12 hours Wilma will begin to start heading in a purely Northwest direction. The forward speed has increased to 8mph, not that notable of a difference, but still that is different from what we were expecting. I was expecting it to slowdown some, but actually the forward motion has continued and kind of increased. The High Pressure ridge is beginning to weaken due to the trough starting to sag southward and by this time tomorrow, Wilma should find a weakness in that ridge and begin to move northward into the Gulf of Mexico. The point where Wilma enters the Gulf of Mexico will greatly determine where she makes landfall on the Florida pennisula. I am still shooting for the trough to pick up Wilma directly between the Yucatan channel and the Western tip of Cuba and shoot her eastward towards southern Florida. But, I may have to adjust the track a bit northward based on this increase in forward motion. Basically, we're looking at a south of Naples landfall. That's the most likely scenario right now.

But, once again, I must stress that it is still not improbable that Wilma will not be picked up by this trough. She may very well slowdown tomorrow morning/afternoon and continue on a WNW motion right into the eastern Yucatan pennisula. However, this slight northwesterly movement over the last couple of hours is an indication that Wilma is beginning to be influenced by the weakening high pressure ridge. The trough is not influencing her yet, but I expect it will continue to erode that ridge and we will see Wilma beginning a NNW, or northward motion by this time tomorrow into the Gulf of Mexico.

For Central Florida, chances remain pretty low that Wilma will have a direct impact. It all depends on if Wilma picks up forward speed. If she starts increasing her speed and manages to clip the eastern Yucatan pennisula before being turned to the northeast, she will gain a higher latitude and come in further north on the pennisula. However, I am still not sold that it would be Central Florida. In my mind, the furthest north it can go is Sarasota. The trough is just moving too fast and Wilma is not likely to beat it.

The intensity forecast remains complicated still. If she moves into the GOM as planned, she will weaken. Interaction with the Yucatan pennisula will also help weaken the system. There are colder temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, they are running 79-81F and the deep water is much cooler than the surface. Also, this trough will cause quite a bit of shear on the system. I just don't see a Category 4 system making landfall in Florida if this scenario plays out. Once she emerges in the Gulf and begins her track to the Northeast, she will begin weakening rapidly. I am calling for a minimal to moderate Category 3 storm with winds no more than 120mph. That's still a dangerous storm, but a lot less damaging then a Cat 4 system coming in.

Let me know if you guys have any questions. Sorry, it comes 1 hour after the advisory, but I wanted to make sure my forecast was right

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