Quote: Very interesting that it has not made the northerly turn yet. This does not bode well for the Yucatan and Cozumel. Reeasoning on the track will undoubtedlu change today. What are the chances of a more northerly Florida landfall even later in the petiod than Monday?
I'm more convinced than ever that any turn to the north won't happen until or very near landfall, or even after landfall. Looking at the overall pattern in the area, there are signs of a turn to the north I think, but they are over the BOC and the western Yucatan. This would go along with the GFNI's latest run mostly... and put Tampa in ground zero.
The cold cloud tops in the old eyewall are collapsing as I write this... unless something changes, new, 40nm eye should be formed by the 11am ET advisory, I think - which would fit in the 12-18 hour timeframe that an ERC should last. What's that mean? Cancun could experience a cat 5 hurricane.
-------------------- Hugh
Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)
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