I am a complete and total amateur and have never done this before, but colleagues in my office have heard me talk about the time I spend on this site and another site and frequently ask for my opinion on what will happen with a storm. Yesterday morning, I sent an e-mail to the office with my first forecast. I will send the following e-mail today:
Wilma forecast---10/20
No reason to change yesterday's forecast of Sunday Cat 2 landfall between Ft. Myers and Naples, based on a brush with the Yucatan, some slowing and weakening before the right turn, and increasing shear and cooler water on the path to Florida. Two IF's---If the entire center of circulation landfalls on the Yucatan, there could be even more weakening and slowing, allowing more time for the other weather patterns to push a Cat 1 further south toward the Keys on Monday. OTOH, if the storm makes a more substantial northward turn today and the center misses the Yucatan entirely, it could track farther north with less weakening before turning northeast and east. That could mean a Cat 3 landfall late Sunday/early Monday between Sarasota and Ft. Myers. More model divergence today than yesterday, due to lack of north turn so far and uncertainty about timing and Yucatan landfall effects, but will stick with the 10/19 prediction as still consistent with the midpoint of the more reliable models.
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