The mystery should be over today, and before the 5p.m. we should know if the NHC track will hold or some more yet unforeseen resullt such as those suggesting meandering south of Cuba will emerge. the visual evidence suggests the NHC guidance will prevail, in my opinion. What I see is the high in the western GOM IS eroding tothe SW. On the WV you can see area of convergence with the strom and the moisture from the storm beginning to effect a SW-NE flow west of 90W. The short wave energy with the low over the Central U.S. is emerging off the Texas Gulf Coast from the NW and it looks like a steering mechanism to the NE will emerge from this later say in about 18-24 hrs. The amplitude of this would seem to be consistent with NOGAPS 6Z... This of course is not at all what the experts are thinking, which continues to be a Southwest Florida solution.
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