Quote: She would have to go almost due N from here to miss the Yucatan (anything to the right of 350).
Clipping the edge of the Yucatan is pretty much a given right now, which is horribly bad for them, and probably good for us due to the interaction with land. Mitch did an incredible amount of damage to both property and life; this could be on that order or perhaps even worse. It is definitely not a good time to be in the resort areas of the peninsula.....
However, that does not mean that the recurvature won't happen - it just changes the shape of the parabola somewhat. Exactly how remains to be seen. I don't expect any significant shift in the track until the 12z models finish, which will happen sometime in the next few hours. We should see an update then in terms of the pattern.
I still think the "big day" in terms of figuring out exactly where this beast is going to head will come tomorrow, in that by then the upper level steering flow should be well-enough established to take a much better guess at the angle of approach. However, this is likely to remain a very dangerous situation in that due to the angle of approach to the coast small errors in that angle will lead to relatively large errors in the actual landfall point, as occurred with Charlie last year.
In addition, tomorrow is likely to be a very bad day for Mexico.... pray for those who can't get out....
0 registered and 535 anonymous users are browsing this forum.
Moderator:
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 72377
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center