This new track having the storm interact with the Yucatan pennisula is VERY good news for Florida. We may be looking at a strong Cat 1/Cat 2 storm now at landfall, which will be significantly weaker than forecasted. Or it could possibly even stall out on the Yucatan and then we would just be looking at a rain event by the time the trough accerelates it towards the pennisula.
Based on the latest IR imagery, Wilma is still heading in a general West-Northwest direction and I believe she will continue on this motion for the next 6-12 hours. This will have her making landfall just south of Cozumel, Mexico. I believe she will spend more time in the Yucatan pennisula (she won't just brush it) and I would not be surprised if the NHC shifts the track farther to the left, where Wilma will cut across much of the eastern half of the pennisula. As I look at the imagery, I see no northerly component or northwestern turn in her motion. In fact she jogs a little more to the west in the last few frames. This is turning out to be a good scenario for Florida, but a horrid one for Mexico and the residents of the Yucatan. They are looking at a strong Cat 4/5 landfall in the next 12-24 hours.
If this scenario verifies, Wilma will make landfall a little further to the north on pennisula (I don't believe the turn will be that sharp, more of a North-Northeastward motion), but what kind of storm will she be at that time? It's very possible she will be a minimal Category 1 or even a Tropical Storm after interacting with the Yucatan.
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