#Beryl on track to become a Major while crossing or near the Windwards. Low behind it now Invest #96L with 70% odds. #94L in Bay of Campeche as well. What month is this?
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any
304 (Idalia)
, Major:
304 (Idalia)
Florida - Any: 304 (Idalia)
Major:
304 (Idalia)
I am not completely sold on the "inland over the Yucatan" solution yet, and a brush is still possible. The ridge is now weakening in the GOM, and the low coming in from the west is accelerating that process, so with its slow movement we shall see. It would be great news for Florida if it does make landfall there, since its inner core may be disrupted to a point that it won't be able to recover before making landfall on the SW coast of Florida, and could get shredded apart in the westerlies. But its still TBD at this point. Let's see what the 12z shows with the new model data. Let's hope it isn't like yesterday's though. Cheers!!
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