A tropical cyclone is not steered by where it has been, or by where it has just been. It is steered by upper air currents. The only memory it retains of the places it visits, is weakening over land masses, which change the atmospheric level that steers it.
Looking at the previous path to determine the future path will get you nowhere. All of the angst and concern about this or that wobble or trying to extrapolate recent movements into a longer-term direction, have no scientific base or sound judgement behind them.
The movement of the eye of a hurricane is easy to see on a satellite image. That does not mean it is the thing you should latch onto as far as determining future movement, just because it is the one thing that is easy to see. The information about the air that moves the cyclone is on that image, somewhat, but not in an obvious way, and you have to know how to look for that kind of information, and you have to look in a very broad area, not on the floater that is zoomed into the hurricane.
In other words, it's not easy to see where she's going; it's easy to see where she's been.
Here are the latest steering currents for a storm of Wilma's intensity:
Note: I want to add another thought about hurricane motion. It is not on the same time scale that we operate on. We have to think in terms more slowly. We cannot think in terms of one satellite image to another (only a half hour in time), but on a longer time track. We watch the sat loops and forget that we're looking at eight hours of movement collapsed into two seconds.
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