As I read the comments here and watched Max continually stating that anyone from Tampa south needs to be carefully monitoring this storm, I picked up on this from the 11AM disco:
DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET ARE BEING INGESTED INTO THE 12Z MODELS AND WE WILL SOON SEE WHAT IMPACT THESE DATA HAVE ON THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED. RIDGING IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WILMA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A GENERALLY SLOWER RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION. AS FAR AS THE FLORIDA THREAT IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE THREAT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE KEYS...AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW THAT DOWN ANY FURTHER.
If I am reading that correctly, they may be giving the NOGAPS more credence than they had previously given it. It sounds to me as though what they are saying is this: that the storm may slow down and the turn may not be as early as previously thought. Which is why I think that Max Mayfield kept mentioning TAMPA southward. Just my own humble opinion; sometimes I read too much into what one sentence may say, but I think, as do they, that this is a "significant change" in the model guidance.
-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.
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