I agree T'bird. I don't know how they (12z NOGAPS & GFS) have the storm 20+ hours on the Yucatan and stay that strong! I would tend to think this would disrupt the core significantly. Then they are strengthening this prior to landfall on Florida as a Cat 3 from what I can tell, and keep it at about 75knots off the east coast of Florida. Maybe they are assuming a period of lower shear until comes off the Florida East coast. They have slowed it down a bit. ????
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