This is a painfully difficult forecast for NHC. Models have not been able to settle on any one solution for very long. This may end up approaching the Yucutan at a rather oblique angle, making the forecast of possible landfall and how long it would linger over the Yucutan very difficult. That part of the forecast makes a huge difference down the line in the intensity forecast. The forecast timing is also in question because there appears to be a fine line as far as when Wilma gets picked up based on the model output... if it stays a little further east than expected, it will get picked up sooner, but if it moves a little more west it could stall out. Throw in the impact of an eyewall-replacement cycle that is struggling to complete and the forecast is really a mess.
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