Well, not to be disrespectful, but I think there is much uncertainty in what she's gonna due. My personal opinion, and I'm out on a limb, is that if she breaks 19.5N by 5am she'll get caught in enuf of the flow that she will not have to wait for a third S/W....a second perhaps, but not a third. This will mean a brush, or even a short-lived landfall near the NE Yucatan, but I don't see her hanging under a tiny bit of ridge after the S/W moves beyond her longitude Now that's not to say she couldn't meander, but she won't kick west. The 18Z NAM even now keeps her offshore, drifts her eastward just south of western Cuba, then has her go over west-central Cuba and strengthens as she heads to the NNE, probably skirting Miami. That probably won't happen , but the idea is that the model that was most emphatic at crushing her into the Yucatan has backed away from that idea. Again my take cause I'm getting tired and its time to get off the pot. Hope I'm wrong, cause if it doesn't weaken over Yucatan she'll be a formidable 'cane heading towards SW Florida. Cheers!!
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