I've been watching the Cancun radar for the past several hours and the track looks to be a steady 345-350 degrees; however, it is moving slowly. The entire eyewall is now visible in the most recent frame (20:57). (Unfortunately, the images of the radar that I capped don't seem to want to load from the site where I stored them.)
It is nearly abreast of Felipe Carrillo Puerto, which is about at the latitude that the UKMet, the BAMM, and the GFDL had it making a Yucatan landfall. It looks to be about two degrees east of the longitude of Cozumel, and it would need to turn to at least a 320 heading to make landfall at Cozumel or Cancun.
The last several frames (20:57 and 21:27) -- the images are 30 mminutes apartt -- suggest it is nearly stationary.
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