Tropical Weather Discussion on Wilma Palm Beach County Central/South Florida 800 pm EDT Thursday October 20, 2005
Latest sat loop at 8pm....
Use this for supplemental Information along with the official forecast.
I am going by the guidance of the ETA or NAm model since the upper air dataseems to be initialized well enough I think better then the GFS. The upper air analysis. Right now Wilma is beginning to get influenced by the upper windstream flow and dry air into this system. The first appearance of raggedness is just showing up. The ETA is vigorous with the upper trough that will engulf WIlma the next 24-36 hrs therefore she will weaken and also it appears the southern cluster model of tracks across the extreme south florida and the Keys is the more likely candidate as far as future track of Wilma. Wilma is actually moving NNW at about 5 to 7 mph and has just reached a blocking effect or wall to the west of it. The water vapor loop clearly shows very fast upper wind flow over the Gulf of Mexico and the GFS does not in my review of the model handle well enough on the speeds and intensity of the upper flow. The trough feature aloft at upper levels will pick up Wilma and push it East to Northeast while captured into a strong upper trough.
The later timing of Wilma more than likely will mean an even weaker system by the time it makes a right beeline shot just underneath our area across the Keys and the Straits or extreme south Florida. Wilma will be piack up speed Saturday and I would not hold my guard down and delay too much on the forecast track and speed since she can pick up speed again once she is caught into the fast westerlies and the weakening commencing between 19 to 20 north latitude which it is just beginning to occur, she will open up and expose her eye to the dry air aloft and upper winds entering into in it's own circulation.! We should see tropical moisture opening up and streaming this way Friday and continue into the weekend as mid-upper trough now just beginning to engulf Wilma this will make her appear as an egg shape feature already happening now and also bring moisture streaming up here normally that you would see on any intense enough east side of a trough. Storngest winds tropical force is Sunday and Monday am then racing away..we must not be let down as Wilma could pick up speed again Saturday night...the slow dowm may be temporary Friday thru Saturday PM picking up Sunday early am in speed and a more ENE than NE motion.!
More to follow...later.
Look just to the Northwest quad of the circulation and you can see raggedness starting more egg shape evoulution gradually talking place on Wilma...beginning signs of upper windstream flowing into Wilma and also DRY AIR MARKED AS COPPER BROWN ENGULFING INTO WILMA! The transition is beginning to take place she i sgoing away from perfect environmental conditions and entering in a more hostile enviroment..wind speeds aloft of 40-50kts is very significant ahead of where she is moving next day into this weekend...slow weakening next 24hrs followed by a rapid weakening possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday..
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
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