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I am having a hard time buying the stall over the Yucatan the way it is being shown in the models. I have my doubts that the eye makes it very far inland. there may be a stall; but it would not surprise me to see the stall occur offshore. If that is what happens, to me, it will render many of the current models moot becuase they will then be dealing with the wrong storm dynamics. I think I will go to bed now and see what the morning says. Probably the best thing to say is that there is not a whole lot off the table right now.

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Excellent point. Also if it stalls offshore... depending upon how long it stalls... it could gain strength in the short term instead of weakening (ultimately if it stalls for a long time it will weaken, though). But any stall means throw the models out the window and burn them.

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Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)

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