How? the models are calling for a stall so how do you throw them out then? and why don't you buy it?
I am not saying I am not buying the stall. I am not buying that the storm makes it as far inland as the models say. Everything is really dependant on where the stall occurs and how much interaction with the Yucatan actually happens. If Wilma manages to stay more near the coast or even off the coast, the strength and possibly the structure of the storm could be very different from how the models are seeing it. A stronger organized structure will have a different atmospheric dynamic then a weakening system that is having its internal structure damaged. Until the stall occurs or the storm actually clears the Yucatan, I am going to have trouble feeling that the models beyond 48 hours are going to be very consistent or reliable. I am not even sure they are entirely reliable in the short term. Without a well defined steering flow, a lot of unforecasted things can happen. that is my point. The model may be right; but there are a lot of other things that can happen right now to make these models useless. Problem is we will not know for some time.
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