Quote: Yeah I know Im just frustrated a little! Sorry for that.. When do you think it will be a confident forecast? Im asking within 200 miles? Ive heard literally a 650 mile difference.
That's cool.. As far as the forecast... I wish I can say that my analysis at 9:30 that demonstrated more of a series and concerted right motion lends much confidence.. It doesn't... HPC stated and I concur, "THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST", even though they agree with what I and others on here deduce a couple of hours ago...
That being said, the new guidance (which frankly, up until 2 days ago was much better ironically enough) at 00z will be telling, because is simply a) must take into consideration that they were all full of s*&! at 18z because of this righter motion, and b) as danielw had posted, it looks like a fair amount of addition dropsonde data got into the 00z from the P4 mission earlier tonight...
One thing I'd like to add... Florida has never lowered their guard, that's for sure. BUT, I do sense that there may be some premature sighs of relief based on the 18z guidance and the short term popularity to have this thing over land on the Yucatan (not that it would be any better for them - best wishes!). I agree with the HPC whole-heartedly that it is still possible for a major hurricane strike on the Penisula of FL. However, one can only wonder if anyone there has considered storm relative shear... SRS means that if Wilma is moving smartly along toward the NE or even NNE once she's clear of the Channel, her shear 'relative' to the wind field around her is less because her forward translational velocity reduces the impact of the shearing force. That "may" actually mitigate some of the weakness anticipation...
I'm only hoping HankFrank has been following this tonight because he and I have an on-going conversation about Wilmas subsequent date with the westerlies..
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