Quote: I went back and animated the 5 Day track at the http://nhc.noaa.gov site.
Wilma is Very Near the 3 Day forecast Point from MONDAY.
The NHC 3 day forecast ARE very accurate, history has proven this. Even with all these wobbles, loops and jogs - the overall motion and direction have been right on track. The only thing that has really changed is the time-line. We went from a Saturday PM to a Monday AM landfall in SW FL. Big picture wise I don't see much change in the overall forecast, at crunch time you'll be spilting hairs. Thus if the storm hits as high as Sarasota or as low as Key Largo the NHC will have it narrowed down. However the real problem is the forward speed once Wilma makes her turn (assuming that happens) - this accelerate will compress the timeline making it near impossible to focus the "cone of error" down to individual cities until maybe only 12 hours before landfall. Normally we would have a more precise location at around the 48 hour mark. Very frustrating when a storm slows, nearly stalls then takes off in another direction at nearly twice the speed - the margin for error goes thru the roof during such a dramatic event.
-------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for: David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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