Quote: Any thoughts or agreement on this, should the cold front moving down Sat & Sun entrnch itself, wouldn;t Wilma choose another route, a Hurricane would not follow a cold front correct or no?
...It depends on what you mean by "follow a coldfront"... If you mean, a cold front passes by the storm and then the storm starts chasing it then no...
...But I suspect you mean 'will the hurricane travel along parellel to the boundary?' That answer is maybe...
...Softly spoken, the U/A mechanics that cause a front to exist at the surface requires an excited windfield aloft. Any hurricane in the vicinity of a front tends to get pulled along polarward ahead of the boundary, while also transitioning into a different thermal dynamically driven system (barotropic vs baroclinic, but we won't get into that here) for various reasons. Until eventually it begins taking on extratropical characteristics.. Then it begins to look like a Norwegian model low (loosely), and can often turn into ferocious gale monsters in the N Atlantic. If the storm is too weak to begin with, the shearing ahead of the front may just cause it to morph right into the frontal boundary its self and loose identity altogether.. Wilma is waaaay to strong for that, however.. It is more likely that she will either a) stay ahead of the baroclinic zone as a separate entity as she going to England at ludicrous speed....or, she'll get sucked up into an important trough slated to dig into the Ohio Valley... If that happens, could be a whale of a Nor'easter/hybrid event up along the Mid-Atlantic and New England Coasts... That appeared to be a real concern 2 days ago, but since....the models have been finding every perturbation imaginable to make that not happen at least excuse to do so.. Which is probably a good thing.
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