preface: lot of emotional discussion on here this morning. tone it down and keep your comments on track, and there won't be deletions and a lot of pointless bickering. that said, wilma is just about there. it does look like a 10-12hr or so landfall if the short term motion keeps up and the center doesn't start magnetically clinging to land. guidance is still in a place that the coast-hugging idea after florida landfall isn't out to lunch, even though most guidance doesn't support this. i haven't looked thoroughly for previous comments, but a new invest 99L is active on the eastern caribbean disturbance. there appears to be a low forming on the southern side of the convective region, which has been fairly consistent since yesterday morning. circulation around wilma and weaker ridging further west should draw it northward and recurve it should a system form... track guidance pretty much shows it crossing hispaniola and turning northeast. TWO at 11 should mention it more, as the downplay it's been getting for the last day looks off the mark. gfs shows a pattern-induced system forming in the southwest caribbean in wilma's wake as strong ridging persists over the east at the surface (while an upper cutoff persists in the same region). also shows response ridging currently over the subtropics staying up, shifting slowly west and weakening in about ten days. this is early, but the same persistent feature i've been mentioning should want to be there by the pattern, and that has been intermittently showing up on gfs. the fact that gfs shows it moving north, then northwest, then northeast near florida in just inside 2 weeks makes it more interesting than usual, but if anything is going to be there then it won't start showing up for 4-5 days. will see. HF 1446z21october
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